Will Jimmy Butler finally deliver on his Miami Heat championship promise?

In advance of the start of training camp on Oct. 3, AllUCanHeat is analyzing the Miami Heat player-by-player. This installment focuses on Jimmy Butler, whose championship window may be closing.

By now it’s clear that Jimmy Butler is capable of being the No. 1 option on a championship team. He’s led the Miami Heat to two Finals in four seasons, in each run posting eyebrow-raising numbers and mostly delivering on bold predictions. There can no longer be a debate about his place among the game’s elite.

However, Butler’s ultimate goal still eludes him. His predictions of a championship have fallen short in each of the last two years, most recently after losing in five games to the Denver Nuggets in the 2023 Finals. At 33, Butler’s window shrinks with each passing year. This is one of the reasons why the Heat have spent the past two summers trying to trade for another superstar — to keep that window open.

If the Heat can complete a trade for Damian Lillard, the load on Butler becomes lighter. Already he spends the regular season biding his energy for a playoff push. Last regular season, Butler averaged 22.9 points on 53.9% shooting, 5.9 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 1.8 steals. He was 33rd in the NBA in scoring, between Kristaps Porzingis and Jalen Green.

After the Heat eked into the playoffs as the No. 8 seed, Butler exploded against the top-seeded Bucks in the first round. He averaged 37.6 points on 59.7% shooting, 6 rebounds and 4.8 assists in five games. Butler finished the playoffs with averages of 26.9 points, 6.5 rebounds and 5.9 assists. Among players who advanced past the first round, he finished seventh in scoring, a notch behind Jayson Tatum and ahead of LeBron James. Much more appropriate company.

It’s fair to wonder how much longer Butler can do this. He was on fumes by the time he reached the Finals, and averaged just 21.6 points on 41.3% shooting. Again, this is where a co-star comes in.

Adding a go-to scoring option like Lillard would allow Butler and Bam Adebayo to focus on what they do best: Defend at an elite level and make plays for teammates. Scoring 30 points in a playoff game would go from necessity to luxury.

Without a star trade, the Heat will rely on a leap from Tyler Herro, who has averaged 20 points over the last two seasons, and Adebayo. That was the case last season, too, after the Heat failed to trade for Kevin Durant or Donovan Mitchell. They made it to the Finals, but the path was arduous and, in the end, they were badly outmatched.

Asking Butler to do more, at this point in his career, doesn’t seem sustainable. He’s played more regular-season and playoff minutes over the last four years than Giannis Antetokounmpo and Chris Paul, and nearly as many as LeBron James. Paul joined the Warriors this summer, where he might not be one of their top three scoring options. James has ceded more responsibility to Anthony Davis and Austin Reaves. Like his peers, Butler knows can’t do the heavy lifting himself but is still capable of the occasional throwback performance.

No one is doubting Butler’s greatness, but the Heat know he needs help. Between now and February’s trade deadline, the Heat will try to add a star capable of sharing the scoring responsibility. If they can’t, Butler’s window could close in a hurry.

Jimmy Butler

Position: Forward
Ht./Wt.: 6-7/230
College: Marquette
Years pro: 12
2022-23: 22.9 points, 5.9 rebounds and 5.3 assists in 33.4 minutes per game
Contract status: In first year of three-year, $146.4 million extension ($45.2 million this season)