2. Shooting should be better
Two seasons ago, the Heat were the top 3-point shooting team in the league by percentage. They finished with 53 wins and the No. 1 seed in the East.
Last season, they regressed to the bottom four in the league in terms of 3-point percentage, which pushed their offense down to 25th in ORTG and cost many regular-season wins. The Heat ended up having to make the playoffs through the play-in tournament.
The Heat should settle somewhere in the middle. They aren’t the best 3-point shooting team in the league, but they aren’t close to being the worst.
Last season, role players like Caleb Martin, Max Strus, Duncan Robinson and Gabe Vincent experienced long slumps and regressions in shooting percentages.
Robinson is due for a bounce-back season after two in which he shot below his standards. Returning to being a 40% 3-point shooter is in the cards. Josh Richardson is a career 36% 3-point shooter and the Heat bring him back. Caleb Martin should also shoot above last season’s 35.6% clip now that he’s playing his more natural perimeter position full-time. Thomas Bryant and Orlando Robinson, two guys with track records of making 3s at the center spot, could also help with a couple of makes a game.
Even if the Heat are closer to league-average in 3-point shooting percentage, that’s a meaningful improvement and should lead to a smoother regular season.