These topsy-turvy playoffs have been exciting, but they’ve also shown that the barrier to entry into the club of contenders isn’t as daunting as it seemed during the regular season.
The Miami Heat finished with 37 wins. The Cavaliers finished with 64 and the Celtics won 61 games. The Heat got wiped away in the first round, but the Cavaliers just lost in the second round for the second straight year, and the Celtics – because of Jayson Tatum’s devastating Achilles injury – are wobbling on the brink of elimination and staring down a gap year.
The East is wide open, and Pat Riley and the rest of Miami’s front office should approach this offseason with that in mind.
Miami needs to get this offseason right.
This isn’t to say that the East doesn’t have great teams. The Pacers have made their second-straight Eastern Conference finals and have emerged as a bona fide contender. The Knicks are proving their mettle against the Celtics and deserve to be up 3-1, regardless of injuries. The Cavaliers will be back.
But there’s no juggernaut here. No 2017 Warriors or LeBron-led team dominating the conference. NBA commissioner Adam Silver wanted parity, and he got it.
Parity in the way that teams can scan the competitive landscape and conclude that the road to contention isn’t as long or steep as it once was.
For Miami’s purposes, it could be as short as one summer.
The Heat already have two cornerstones in Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro and an all-time coach in Erik Spoelstra. They will be heard from in every rumored star trade. They have three tradable first-round picks and $65 million in expiring salary to use in their retooling.
Make no mistake, the Heat are far away. Not only do they need a star to top the roster, they also need to bolster the middle of the rotation with trusted contributors.
Adding someone like Kevin Durant to this group didn’t seem like enough of a needle-mover just a week ago.
Now? It appears the Heat could be a Durant away from reaching the conference finals based on next year’s competition.
The Celtics won’t have Tatum for at least 12 months and are facing a historic tax bill that will demand tough decisions and the chipping away of talent. They’ll win some games next season, but they won’t be a contender.
The Cavaliers have hard questions to ask after this latest playoff ousting. Can they win at the highest level with Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland in the backcourt? Will they be able to hold onto Ty Jerome as a key bench piece?
Based on the rumors and reporting, the Bucks could lose their franchise player soon.
While the Pacers and Knicks deserve your respect, they are also beatable.
It will take a homerun of an offseason for the Heat to catch them, but it is doable.
How?
Step one: Acquire a star who can carry the offense in the playoffs. Herro and Adebayo are All-Stars, but they should be complementary scorers who operate around a primary shot creator. Durant is the obvious target, but the Heat will be mentioned as a landing spot for any other star who shakes loose.
Step two: Re-sign Davion Mitchell. He proved to be a playoff riser and an instant fit in Miami. His perimeter defense, timely shot-making and passing filled a lot of gaps on the roster.
Step three: Add one or two trusted rotation players. Spoelstra searched his bench for players who could help in Miami’s playoff series against the Cavs and came up short. Young players like Nikola Jovic, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Pelle Larsson are promising, but weren’t ready. If they aren’t ready next season, the Heat may have to consider swapping youth for experience. But only if that star player comes first.
Easier said than done, sure. But that’s the path. Do those things, and the Heat should be right back near the top of the East next season.