Top 4 emerging storylines for the Miami Heat 20 games into the season

It’s the 20-game mark of the season, typically when front offices around the league take a step back and re-evaluate their situation. The Miami Heat at this quarter mark are 10-10.

They haven’t broken through the upper crust of the Eastern Conference and have gotten inconsistent performances across the roster (with the exception of one scowling Wisconsinite). 

Are they where they hoped to be? No. Is their best basketball ahead of them? Well, they, uh, hope so. As the Heat’s front office takes a sober look at the state of the team, so will we. Here are the four biggest storylines that have emerged in Miami this season.

1. Tyler Herro is having a career year

Herro is averaging career highs in points (24.1), assists (4.9) and True Shooting (62.3%). But, if I told you his usage rate was actually down, would you believe me?

Well, it is. After posting a 27.8% usage rate last season, Herro is down to using 27.5% of Miami’s possessions. It’s not a huge drop, but the surprising part is that it’s down at all, considering how much more important Herro seems to Miami’s offense this season.

Usage rates can be hard to track that way. The eye test only says so much. Herro is averaging about the same field goal attempts per game as last season, even if it feels like he’s shooting with abandon. 

This is a side effect of his altered shot chart. The definition of efficiency is scaling up productivity without increasing time or reps. Herro is doing exactly that. After relying on mid-range shots last season, Herro has taken just 16 mid-range jumpers this season, according to NBA.com’s database. He took 130 in 42 games last season. That’s an average of 3.1 mid-range attempts last season to 0.8 per game this season.

This is the Tyler Herro the Heat have always needed. Herro has been a world-class shooter his whole career. His pull-up and catch-and-shoot percentages from beyond the arc have rivaled Steph Curry and Klay Thompson for years, but he wasn’t shooting them at the same volume. The Heat wondered whether or not those percentages would hold if Herro scaled up the attempts.

The overwhelming answer is yes.

Herro is third in 3-pointers made per game this season, ahead of Curry and behind only Anthony Edwards when factoring in efficiency. He’s shooting 43.5% on catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts, behind only Derrick White among players with his volume. He’s shooting 40.% on pull-up 3s, behind only Edwards among players with his volume.

While the mid-range used to be considered the domain of the stars, the pull-up 3-pointer is moving in on the corner. The league’s best players regularly create their own looks from 3-point range. Here are the top five players in pull-up 3-point attempts per game: LaMelo Ball, Luka Doncic, Jayson Tatum, Edwards and James Harden. 

Keep going, and you’ll see Trae Young, Tyrese Haliburton, Damian Lillard, Donovan Mitchell, Stephen Curry, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Devin Booker. 

And Herro, who is shooting better than nearly all of them.

As Jimmy Butler ages (more on that later) and coach Erik Spoelstra tilts his offense toward the perimeter, there’s an argument to be made that Herro should be taking more of these shots. He’s Miami’s best offensive player. He already leads the team in attempts and efficiency. He’s proven he can handle a more significant workload. Put more on his plate.

2. Bam Adebayo is… not

The Heat are hoping Game 20 was a breakthrough for Bam Adebayo because the first 19 had been disappointing for the three-time All-Star. Adebayo is averaging lows in points (15.6) and field goal percentage (42.9) since becoming a full-time starter in 2019.

Against the Lakers on Wednesday, Adebayo scored 14 points on 6 of 8 from the field. It wasn’t his biggest point total of the season, but he flashed some things that had been curiously absent from his offense.

For most of the season, Adebayo has seemed indecisive about where his shots were going to come from in Miami’s new offense. The free-throw line jumper has been his sweet spot, but his touch has seemingly been Space Jammed. He’s gone from shooting 50.1% on non-restricted area paint jumpers to 37.3% this season. Until his touch comes back, he needs to find other ways to score.

Against the Lakers, Adebayo was making quick decisions. Here he is with Christian Koloko in the post. He attacks right away, gets to his spot near the restricted area, gets Koloko in the air, and steps through into a layup.

This is when Bam is at his best. The Heat have given him more post-up opportunities the last few seasons, hoping he would develop into one of the league’s best options down low. While his efficiency hasn’t always been where the Heat have wanted it to be, he’s made tremendous strides. Getting back to that is a good way for 13 to find his place in the offense and get his season – at least offensively – back on track.

3. Jimmy Butler’s contract year hasn’t gone as planned

In what could amount to a contract year for Jimmy Butler, many believed he was due for one of his best seasons. It’s been far from it.

Through 20 games, Butler has missed five to injury and is averaging the fewest points (18.7), field-goal attempts (11.2), assists (4.8) and minutes (31.7) since putting on a Heat jersey. 

Even more troubling is that his usage rate is the lowest in 10 years. (His 21.1% usage rate is the same as Toronto’s Chris Boucher.) The production hasn't been there for someone who wants to get paid like a star and was challenged by the front office to ramp things up in the regular season.

At 35, Butler had hoped to sign an extension over the summer but punted to next season once the Heat made it clear they were not ready to entertain that conversation.

If these averages hold, it’ll be interesting to see if the Heat, or any other team, would be willing to offer Butler a max contract.

Of course, Butler doesn’t have to test free agency at all. He could opt into the final year of his contract worth $52.4 million. At this point, it shouldn’t ruled out. 

The odds of him making up that much money in the open market are slim. Even if there’s a long-term offer out there, it could take two or three years to make up what he left on the table. Instead, he could pick up the $52.4 million and decide on the rest of his career in 2026.

4. Youth is not popping

Heat coaches and staffers were publicly and privately excited about the team’s depth and youth coming into the season. Jaime Jaquez Jr. had burst onto the scene to earn first-team All-Rookie honors, Nikola Jovic emerged as the starting power forward in his second season, and Kel’el Ware was among the most impressive rookies at Las Vegas Summer League.

Whenever the topic of losing free agents like Gabe Vincent, Max Strus and Caleb Martin was brought up, the Heat would point to these first-round talent additions. 

Unfortunately, none of them have popped this season. Jaquez’s scoring numbers have dropped across the board, Jovic went from starting to out of the rotation, and Ware was sent to the G League this week. 

Ware has had a hard time getting on the court despite Kevin Love and Thomas Bryant trading minutes as Bam Adebayo’s backup. He’s played 69 minutes in 10 games while other first-round centers like Yves Missi and Zach Edey are making regular impacts on their teams.

Spoelstra publicly praises the work Ware is putting in behind the scenes, but clearly, something is lagging. Ware was considered a raw prospect when he was drafted, and Heat coaches have been working with him on his defensive positioning and pick-and-roll coverage. The hope is that he can work on some of those things in live action in the G League.

“The next logical thing is to try and get him some time, get him some game minutes and see how he can impact winning,” Spoelstra said.

Jaquez's slip might be more health-related after missing time due to a stomach illness and an ankle sprain. He’s in better shape now and just put together his best five-game stretch of the season, averaging 12 points on 45.7% shooting, 5.6 rebounds, 2 assists and 1.4 steals. His 3-point shot (31.3%) remains a work in progress.

Jovic’s case is more curious. The starting lineup with him in the front court wasn’t working, and he eventually replaced Love. After playing a few games off the bench, Jovic hasn’t played in Miami’s last six games, though he was on the injury report for some. There’s no questioning Jovic’s ball skills, but the Heat wanted him to find ways to impact the game without the ball as a rebounder, screener and defender. He’s also struggled with his 3-point shot (31.8%), something that mitigated his utility as a floor spacer.

The Heat know what they are getting from most of the roster. Herro is having a career season, Butler will pick and choose his spots and Adebayo will be better. But to make a leap, they’ll need one of these first-round picks to blossom into a difference-maker. That hasn’t happened yet.