- The Heat defense turned up a notch in the 76ers 3rd quarter
- The Heat could still up the ante on 3-point shooting
- Should these be the permanent starters?
- Two future Hall of Famers have best showings of the season
- Eastern conference update: Where do the Heat stand?
Are the Miami Heat finding their groove? They won two out of three outings this week and are on a 5-day layover. The guys can get some much-needed rest and review what's helped them progress. Over the last two weeks, the Heat have a plus-3.3 point differential.
Legendary coach Erik Spoelstra has never been afraid to rock the boat, and it's time for another massive decision. As the team perks up, it's no coincidence that the two future Hall of Famers have had their best showings of the year. The Heat stands at 6-7, and thanks to the rest of the Eastern conference, they can realistically look to climb out of that hole.
The Heat defense turned up a notch in the 76ers 3rd quarter
Miami's third-quarter woes to kick off the season were well documented. Opposing broadcast teams repeatedly brought up the damning third-quarter statistics. The Heat flipped the switch on Joel Embiid and friends through hustle and communication.
The Heat ran out Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, Haywood Highsmith, Jimmy Butler, and Bam Adebayo to trash Philly's plans. Terry Rozier was sidelined with discomfort in his right foot, so Spo could tinker with a balanced, fun lineup.
Joel Embiid was managed from the instant the quarter began. Adebayo handled Embiid one-on-one-- he was forced to swing the ball, but Heat players were there at every stop. Here's Ducan Robinson setting the tone.
He primitively rotated over early, leaving non-shooter Caleb Martin while Butler was on the help side and could take his matchup. That's a charge 9/10; tough call but a good process from the sharpshooter. It would be a long 12 minutes for the 76ers.
Miami's defense was Flash in transition. They repeatedly beat Philly up the court, holding them to four fast break points. They also drug the 6ers through the mud in the half-court, swarming Philly's wings with delayed traps that forced them to cough the ball up. Embiid wasn't safe from this treatment either.
He thinks he will get an opportunity to attack Highsmith one-on-one here, but nope, take this delayed trap and watch Butler make a play like he's the Heisman favorite, Travis Hunter.
The Heat held the 76ers to 16 total third-quarter points, and they only made one three. The Heat shut off rim attempts, and quality looks from deep. Even Dru Smith got in on the action, playing bullish on-ball defense and igniting Heat fastbreaks. It was a masterclass team defense performance and their best defensive period of the year. Philly didn't have one player make two shots this period. That's domination.
While the defense snapped back into form, the offense wasn't too shabby. Heat snipers connected on seven triples. That's encouraging because Robinson is starting to find it from triple. He was 2/4 this period and is shooting 37% on 8.5 3PA over the last six games. He's part of a group of Heat players that need to do their jobs on an expanded level.
The Heat could still up the ante on 3-point shooting
It's no secret that Herro has been amongst the best shooters in the league this season. He's also been the best player on the Heat—the Heat need to tap into his special trait more because of the lack of top-end talent.
Miami doesn't step on the floor nightly with the best player on their side. With the talent disparity in many games, dial up the 3s. 3s are worth more than twos, and the Heat have snipers who aren't food on defense, depending on matchups.
Forty-one percent of Heat shots are coming from beyond the arc -- good for ninth in the league and their highest rate ever. Ever is a strong word, but the number of attempts could still increase. Robinson and Herro are the only high-volume shooters on the team, but Alec Burks's name should included in that distinction. Burks is shooting 50% on 3.3 attempts. That ludicrous figure may drop some if Burks exceeds the 18-minute-a-game threshold, but he'll always be a threat. He aids the Heat with balanced floor spacing and capable defense. Burks isn't a guy circled on opposing coaches' "hunt list." Teams should rightfully go at him if he's in a wing lineup with Butler and Highsmith because they're a step above him defensively, but go right ahead. Burks can hold his own.
Kevin Love is another Heat sniper who immediately checked into the 76ers game and lit them up from deep. The 36-year-old has appeared in 6 Heat games, drilling 8 of 18 3PA. Love does so many little things well in his minutes— his classic hit-head passes still excite me like it's the end of December, he still boxes out really well, and he's found his stroke again in Miami. As he continues to be a staple of the second unit, I'm counting on the old man to take and make more shots from deep.
Rozier is struggling from deep. He shoots the third-most 3s after Herro and Robinson. We'll just hope he plays better. It's possible his foot was truly nagging him and affecting his play. He's had almost a week off, so he could feel lighter and ready to shoot. He's been in one of the worst slumps of his career. I don't think this poor shooting will continue, but Spo might switch it up before Rozier gets it going.
Should these be the permanent starters?
Spo has shuffled through 3 starting lineups in this infant season, but he may have stumbled upon the best group against the 76ers. The five-man lineup of Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, Haywood Highsmith, Jimmy Butler, and Bam Adebayo is a brilliant mix of checks and balances.
Herro, Robinson, and Highsmith space the floor through shooting and cutting. Highsmith, Butler, and Adabyo are All-Defense caliber defenders who band-aid any sore spots the sharpshooters are vulnerable to. Butler, Herro, and Adebayo initiate the offense, which can still be muddy sometimes. Overall, in this lineup, players are being used to their strengths and not being asked to be something they're not. They exposed the imploding 76ers and were plus-12 in 14 minutes together. The 76ers have been underwhelming, but Embiid and whatever is left of Paul George were out there. This starting five for Miami had a 123 offensive rating and a menacing 83 defensive rating. That'll do it.
I love the synergy between Rozier and Herro. Rozier has eyes for 14 when he isn't hunting his shot. While the duo has hooked up for 18 Rozier-to-Herro-assists, Rozier is being asked to be something he's never been. Rozier isn't a floor general; he's a streaky yo-yo-handling scorer who may find success off the bench. Rozier genuinely seems to love it in the 305 and states he wants to win at all costs. I doubt he'll be unprofessional about accepting a sixth-man role if Spo goes that route. Maybe Spo makes this change due to the non-glamorous side of the ball.
Rozier is more limited than Herro and has been hunted religiously through 12 games. Swapping him for Robsinson in the starting lineup gives the Heat more positional size and hot shooting. Robinson isn't 2016 Kawhi Leonard as a wing defender, but he's a smart positional defender and 6-foot-7 if all else fails. Highsmith is the X-factor that'd make this presumed starting five go. He's the key that takes opponents' best players out of the game, hits open shots, finds open space, and won't stop the ball on offense. Regardless of whether Rozier or Robinson starts, Highsmith has to be there to squeeze the most juice out of this lineup. He's the X-factor, but this whole song and dance begins and ends with Butler and Adebayo.
Two future Hall of Famers have best showings of the season
Before touching on how Adebayo dismantled Pacers smalls in the Heat's 124-111 Emirates NBA Cup win, notice how it's two Hall of Famers leading this Heat team. That's not premature talk for Adebayo. He needs to rack up more accolades (winning the title won't hurt), but he's on pace to get that golden ticket. 16 players have made exactly five All-Defense teams, most of which are Hall of Famers or active greats, such as Giannis Antetokounmpo, Anthony Davis, Jimmy Butler, and Adebayo. He's only scratching the surface at 27 years old. Don't be so quick to trash Adebayo based on this slow start.
While the defensive stalwart has struggled offensively this year, he got it going to collect the Heat's first win of the in-season tournament. Adebayo dominated the Pacers with 30 points, 11 rebounds, and seven assists on 71 TS%. Adebayo abused any matchup that wasn't Pacers starting Center Myles Turner.
That's what Adebayo is supposed to do-- dominate smalls. Teams shouldn't feel comfortable trotting out thin wings to contain Adebayo. He made the Pacers reconsider this gameplan in the Pacers 119-110 over the Heat two nights later. Adebayo's pushshot and post-fades were flowing in both games. He struggled on the points side when the Heat crushed the Sixers, but his attention to detail defensively has the Heat creeping into the top 10 defenses. Jimmy Butler had no problems torching this same 76ers defense.
Butler erupted for a season-high 30 points in the Heats dub over Philly. He tossed in 10 boards and five assists. This was a quintessential peak Butler performance. There were plenty of Jimmy Shimmies as he got defenders stuck in quicksand and waltzed to the basket. Butler loves playing against former teammates, and Caleb Martin got it the worst in this one-- Butler punished Martin in the post and at the rim. Joel Embiid felt the burst of Butler with continued blowbys. Butler needed to go off like this to set the tone for the team. If he's not this guy, the Heat don't have a chance to do anything.
Embiid wasn't his typical self against the Heat—credit the defense, but Embiid is still finding his rhythm. He had no problems declaring praise for Jimmy Butler, calling him the best player in the world. Who knows what message Embiid was trying to convey with that quote, but he and the Sixers are hanging on by a thread.
Eastern conference update: Where do the Heat stand?
After snagging Caleb Martin and Paul George in Free Agency, the consensus was that the 76ers were one of the teams 100% better than Miami. The Milwaukee Bucks were thought to be there, too. Both teams could turn it around, but they are fatally flawed teams. The Bucks can't guard a sloth right now. Their defense has looked better with their young players, AJ Green and Andre Jackson, in the lineup, but are they ready to help Milwaukee make a real push? The Heat's foundation is more solid than that of the Bucks. You can arguably trust the Heat's defense over the Bucks offense, which has high-end talent like Damian Lillard and Giannis. What good are the points if you give them back up?
The 76ers struggles are evident in the injury report every night. George re-hyperextended his knee, and star guard Tyrese Maxey has yet to return from a hamstring injury. The 76ers have the worst record in the East, staring up at 2-12. Even if Embiid snaps back to MVP form and his supporting cast gets healthy, this team will have to do a lot of ground covering to catch Miami.
The New York Knicks are stepping into who they want to be. The firepower of Karl-Anthony Towns and Jalen Brunson is too much to deny, but their defense has been putrid, too—specifically in the paint. Opponents are shooting 81% with KAT at the rim. Butler would feast in that setting in the postseason, but the Heat would need to keep up with the buckets New York gets.
Other teams that were thought to be clearly ahead of Miami were the Orlando Magic and Indiana Pacers. The Magic look formidable— they've gone 6-1 in their last seven without future superstar Paolo Banchero. This young team will be a thorn in the Heat's side for the next decade with Bachero and Franz Wagner at the helm. Indiana hasn't been impressive, as Tyrese Haliburton doesn't look like the All-NBA player he was last year. The Pacers offense isn't rolling like the previous year, either. The Heat just went 1-1 against the Pacers, but with the way Miami is trending, their process looks better than the Pacers.
The Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers are East outliers—you can't lump them in with the rest of the Leastern Conference. They have the top two offenses with ratings over 124. Miami has its work cut out for it attempting to compete with those juggernauts, but it's a long season. Chemistry, coaching, and cohesion are the path for another improbable Heat run. They'll likely have to go through Boston or Cleveland to reach the impossible again.