5 Things U Can Heat: Can Miami fix their starting lineup?

Welcome to "5 Things You Can Heat!" In these pieces inspired by Zach Lowe's classic column, I'll share the perspective of a dedicated Heat fan living up North and discuss what I observe. These insights will include analysis, key Heat storylines, and anything worth noting. We’ll strive to keep these discussions positive, though sometimes the reality doesn’t align with what we hope to see (like the Heat's starting lineup). So, without further ado, let’s dive in!

If only Jimmy Butler had been born in 1997 instead of 1989

It's going to be a long season. Trade rumors will swarm social media, questions will be asked, and all eyes will be on Jimmy Butler this season because he's the next star who could be available. Other teams might see he hasn't signed an extension and think, I know the Heat don't want to lose him for nothing. Talks might take place, but will they materialize into anything? Maybe Butler will re-sign with the Heat, and this thing keeps going. Time will tell.

But I wish I could warp time and space and put a 27-year-old Butler with this Heat team. It's obvious that Butler, at 35, can no longer string together dominant performances night after night in the regular season. In the four games this season, Butler has two elite and two subpar games in which he let others dominate the ball possession after possession.

Many questions would be answered if the Heat had Butler at his apex with this group. We'd have the best two-way version of Butler, and he'd be signed to an extension. There wouldn't be this upcoming chaos, and the Heat's window to win a title would be wider. Right now, the window is shrinking (if not already closed). If Miami doesn't win it all this year, it's not likely that this group will return as is. It sucks that this is the Heat's predicament, but what are they going to do about it?

The Heat are generating quick offense, upping their 3-point frequency

With all this talk about the Heat's offense in the offseason, I've been pleased to see the 3-point volume increase. 43% of the Heat's shots are coming from beyond the arc. This trend should continue because the Heat's accuracy will improve as the games continue. Duncan Robinson will not continue to struggle like this.

One thing I've thoroughly enjoyed about these 3-point attempts is the "splash" action Miami is running. The hammer screen set for the shooter drifting in the corner generates quick-hitting 3s that keep the tempo flowing.

Teams will adjust when teams realize this staple in Spo's playbook is occurring more frequently. Luckily for the Heat, the slip option is right there for the screener if defenses begin overplaying.

Terry Rozier's outside shotmaking has been hot to start the year. His 14 makes on 32 attempts would be a career-high 44%. He's greatly benefiting from these splash actions as he can build a rhythm with these open looks.

Alec Burks is automatic from the corner already, so he's a natural to take advantage of this action when he does play. Will he not have a regular role in the rotation? He had red in his eyes as he drilled three triples in the win against the Hornets, but he didn't register one minute in the loss to the Knicks this week. Burks' minutes are something to keep your eyes on.

Miami is allowing too many 3s. They always have, but this feels differen.t

While the Heat have increased their 3-point volume, they've also allowed opponents to get it going from deep. Through four games, they've allowed opponents to shoot an average of 42 3-point attempts per game, the third-most in the NBA.

Different philosophies get different results. The Heat have ranked in the bottom five in opponent 3-point frequency every year in the Jimmy Butler era. On the flip side, they've stifled opponents at the rim, never allowing more than 32% of their opponent's shots to come near the basket.

This philosophy (nobody shoots at the rim, make them take contested 3s) has helped the Heat reach two NBA Finals and some overachieving regular-season results. This has worked for the Heat, but seeing the Hornets shoot wide-open 3s was unsettling.

The Hornets only shot 13 of 41 from deep, but they missed plenty of shots NBA sharpshooters would deem "open." The New York Knicks didn't have this problem, as they buried eight 3s in the third quarter alone. These weren't wide-open 3s as the Heat closed out and got hands in faces, but once a team is hot, it's a wrap. Teams have shot 39% from beyond the arc against Miami so far—a nasty number.

Teams hitting at this rate could be nothing. Teams only shot 35% against the Heat from deep last year, so maybe things even out. Regardless, the amount of 3s the Heat are giving up still speeds up my heart rate, as NBA shooters will make teams pay for giving them comfortable looks.

Anybody can get it and go

We've yet to see the benefits of the pace that we saw in the preseason. While the pace stat itself can be a bit misleading, one way the Heat are pushing the tempo is with the "get it and go" mentality. It's standard for a team's lead ball handler to stay back after a defensive rebound and demand an outlet pass.

The Heat still do some of that, but I love it when any player gets the rebound and takes off. Big men historically haven't thrived doing that, but the Heat don't have typical bigs. Sure, Bam Adebayo is struggling. He's shooting sub-40 % from the field and is 0 for 8 from 3-point range. I'm not worried about the slow start. Bam will pick it up as the season progresses, even if he's shooting less than last year.

But Bam has been passable in grabbing the rebound (still needs to rebound more) and finding teammates. Take this fastbreak possession, for example. Rozier can run the floor, filling the lanes for an easy bucket instead of getting the outlet pass himself because Bam is skilled enough to thread the needle on these passes.

Nikola Jovic has this in his game, and it was one of his most enticing skills when he entered the league. Jovic's vision in the open court gives the Heat another weapon. I want to see him get all the way to the rack and look at the rim before he passes it out, but grabbing and going is still one of the key dishes Jovic brings to the potluck.

The Heat starting five is really that bad together, huh?

Time heals, or time kills. The Heat's starting five are off to a horrific start. In 117 possessions together, this lineup has a minus-24.6 net rating. It starts with Butler and Bam. As I mentioned earlier, Bam will be better, and Butler is an aging star who can't ball out every night in 2024.

But is that really the case? Because the Jimmy-plus-bench lineups have produced better results than the starters. The Butler, Robinson, Jaquez, Bryant, and Highsmith lineup is gelling. They haven't played enough minutes together, but in this lineup, Butler has been much more assertive in looking for his shot and drawing fouls. The tired excuse that he can't be that aggressive sharing the floor with Herro and Rozier is bologna.

Butler can do whatever he wants on this team. He's picking his spots and choosing to go balls to the wall as a scorer when his starting mates sit down. The bench-plus-Butler lineup will be good all year but not plus-53.3-points good. If the Heat have any chance of staying out of the play-in picture, the best players have to optimize the time they play together.

If this starting lineup is truly broken, tough decisions must be made. Jaime Jaquez Jr. is a viable starter who is currently coming off the bench. He's already played the fifth-most minutes on the roster and finishes close games. Highsmith adds a level of on-ball defense nobody else on the roster provides.

(No mention of Tyler Herro here because he's gotten better. Again. More rim attacks, fewer middies, and the same confidence. Herro has been great, and it'd be nice if the other four joined him in playing consistently good basketball).

Stats are as of 10/31/2024 and are via Cleaning The Glass, Basketball Reference, PBP stats, and NBA.com.