9 Increasingly bold Miami Heat predictions for the 2024-25 season

It’s time for predictions! The Miami Heat open their season on Wednesday against the Orlando Magic at Kaseya Center. We asked our biggest remaining questions after a productive preseason earlier this week, and now we’ll move into the realm of conjecture.

Here are nine predictions for the 2024-25 Heat season, each one bolder than the last.

The Heat will have two All-Stars.

Bam Adebayo has entered perennial All-Star territory. That’s what happens when you win a second gold medal and are a featured face in the NBA’s promotional materials. 

Jimmy Butler, as long as he plays enough games before voting closes, is also a sure-fire All-Star. He’s one of the guys where voters need more of a reason to keep him out than to vote him in.

By all indications, the Heat will be taking the start of the season much more seriously than last year. Adebayo’s 3-point shooting and Butler’s availability will be refreshing, both will average 20-plus points per game and make early cases for All-Defensive teams, and both will head to San Francisco for All-Star weekend.

Bam Adebayo will attempt more than 300 3s. 

I know, this seems like a lot. Especially considering that Bam has attempted 104 3-pointers in his career.

But the math ain’t mathing if you want to estimate fewer. Bam averaged 3.3 3s in 20 minutes per game in the preseason. There’s reason to believe he’ll average 4-5 per game with regular-season minutes, especially in Miami’s new five-out offense. Opponents will leave him open – at least to start the season – and 13 has already shown he aims to let it fly.

Adebayo made 38.5% of his 3s in the preseason. That will come back down to earth, but even if he makes 35% of his 3s, that’s an awesome clip. Remember, he’s never done this before.

If Bam is to enter the class of floor-spacing 5s, it’s worth looking at his contemporaries. Maybe 300 seems like a lot, but check out the list of big men who cleared that bar last season: Santi Aldama, Nikola Vucevic, Myles Turner, Karl-Anthony Towns, Chet Holmgren, Jaren Jackson Jr., Victor Wembanyama, Brook Lopez and Naz Reid. Kristaps Porzignis took 293 in 57 games.

All those centers averaged the number of 3-point attempts Adebayo projects to take. What’s more, of his total shot attempts in the preseason, 44% of them came from beyond the arc. We’re looking at a transformation of Bam’s shot chart. Whatever we knew before should be crumbled up and thrown in the recycling bin.

Tyler Herro will lead the Heat in scoring.

Who leads the Heat in scoring this season comes down to three names: Herro, Adebayo and Butler. Terry Rozier is taking on more of a playmaking role, and nobody else is ready to crack the 20-point-per-game mark. 

The early bet here is on Herro, who (a) led the Heat in scoring last season and (b) averaged the most field goal attempts per game in the preseason. 

In his new role, Herro will be working off the ball more. You might think that will lead to fewer opportunities, and maybe you’re right, but they will certainly be better opportunities. In the preseason, 85% of Herro’s 3s were assisted. That’s a reflection of Miami’s priority to get Herro more catch-and-shoot looks.

Herro is an elite catch-and-shoot marksman. His efficiency regularly ranks near Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. But his volume is what lagged. If the Heat can get Herro to take nine or 10 3-pointers per game, he and the offense will be better for it. 

The Heat will lead the league in steals.

After ranking near the bottom of the league in fastbreak points, coach Erik Spoelstra has prioritized getting back to forcing turnovers. A more engaged Butler will help, but so will defensive growth from Herro and Rozier. 

The Heat averaged 15.2 steals per game in the preseason. That’s a bananas number (last year’s leader averaged 8.5) partially influenced by preseason offenses being sloppier than regular-season offenses.

But it’s also a reflection of Miami’s new focus. Spoelstra knows the Heat need to force turnovers to be successful on both ends. They don’t get blocks nor take as many charges as they did in the Kyle Lowry years, so the only way to stop an opponent's possession other than with a missed shot is to get deflections. So they’ll be jumping passing lanes and trying to create easy points in transition to steal easy points and boost their offense. 

Heat will close games with Rozier, Herro, Butler, Jaquez and Bam.

Starting lineups are dictated by matchups. Closing lineups are decided by trust. 

That’s why the Heat will start the season with the 6-foot-10 Nikola Jovic as the starting power forward. With Jovic out there, the Heat can theoretically match up across positions against most teams. He’s big and he makes 3s. It’s the easiest default setting.

But at the end of games, Spoelstra will turn to the players he trusts most to make good decisions and play with the ball in their hands. Jovic is capable of that, but Jaquez is on another level. Jaquez is one of the Heat’s best players at creating a shot for himself and others. When other teams go small (as they tend to do in crunch time), Jaquez’s lack of size at the 4 becomes less of an issue. He can apply pressure on defenses, play on the break, and get his teammates involved. 

One of the two-way contracts will be swapped out for Isaiah Stevens.

The Heat entered the season with the same three players on two-way contracts as they started with in the preseason: Dru Smith, Josh Christopher and Keshad Johnson.

Among that group, the Heat might be most intrigued by Johnson’s upside. They’ve also invested quite a bit of time in Smith, and Spoelstra has spent the last week singing his praises. 

If I had to guess, Christopher’s spot is the most at risk. After an impressive run through the Las Vegas Summer League, Christopher took the final two-way spot from Zyon Pullin. But he struggled with his shot in the preseason, and it became clear that if his shot isn’t falling, he doesn’t do anything else at an NBA level just yet.

Isaiah Stevens, meanwhile, continues to impress. He’s constantly setting up his teammates for good looks and his hustle is evident. His size (at 6 feet) is a big reason he isn’t on an NBA roster already, but he keeps impressing despite it.

The Heat tend to make at least one change to their two-way roster each season. Stevens is a good bet to end the season in one of those spots.

Teams will call about Haywood Highsmith at the deadline.

Every team can use a player like Highsmith. He’s a lengthy defender who shot 40% from 3-point range last season. As long as the shooting sticks, he’ll have plenty of fans ahead of the NBA’s February trade deadline.

It also helps that he’s on a team-friendly contract: $10.8 million over two years. Most teams can match his $5.2 million salary and return an asset.

This is NOT a prediction that the Heat will trade him. All of that value applies just as much to a cash-strapped Heat team – maybe more. But teams will call and hope the Heat budge. If the Heat are worse than expected by February, perhaps a move becomes more realistic.

The Heat will have a top-12 offensive rating.

We’re getting bold now! Hear me out. The Heat starters posted an offensive rating of 117.4 in the first four preseason games. That would have ranked seventh in the league last season.

Of course, the starters aren’t always on the court, and the Heat’s offense also struggled when Spoelstra swapped in the second unit. 

But Spoelstra said the hockey-style line shifts won’t continue in the regular season. As long as two of the core four – Rozier, Herro, Butler and Adebayo – are on the court, the Heat should generate enough offense to survive. 

This is certainly a stretch goal, but it helps that Miami’s 3-point volume seems poised to skyrocket and getting more fastbreak points will lift their efficiency rating, too. 

Heat will finish with a top-four seed.

The boldest of bold predictions. Most NBA observers (including this one) have the Celtics, 76ers, Bucks and Knicks in a clear top tier in the East. It’s hard to argue otherwise. If injuries (and injury management) cause the Knicks and 76ers to slide, two of the top four spots are open. 

The Cavaliers, Pacers and Magic are in the next tier. Most don’t know what to do with the Heat, who have earned our respect and have also been in the play-in tournament for two years in a row.

My argument is this: We don’t know enough about this Heat team to put them in any tier. The projected starting five played a whopping ZERO minutes together last season. They looked good in the preseason, but it’s the preseason. 

Spoelstra is also rolling out a brand-new offense (despite his claims that he has only “tweaked” the offense) that should optimize an assortment of shot creators. Between Rozier, Herro, Butler, Adebayo and Jaquez, few teams can claim as much shot-creating talent as the Heat.

There are questions about how they will mesh. Injuries will always be a concern with a Butler-led roster. But Spoelstra is like that thing Jack Nicholson’s character in “The Departed” quotes from John Lennon: “I’m an artist. You give me a tuba, I’ll get you something out of it.”

Spoelstra is John Lennon. Any damn roster in the NBA is the tuba. He gets the most out of his teams. So ask yourself, what’s the most the Heat can be?