The 2024-25 season has been interesting for the Miami Heat’s star big man Bam Adebayo. His overall versatility is still at an All-Star level in terms of his passing and rebounding. Defensively, his presence in the lineup poses as an anchor and crucial part of what coach Erik Spoelstra and the organization want to do.
However, it’s no secret that his offense hasn’t been where it should be at this stage of his career. Over the summer, the Adebayo brand was at an all-time high. He was coming off a season where he secured his third All-Star nod and earned first team All-NBA honors. His gold medal run with Team USA at the Olympics only added even more optimism is his continued growth.
At the age of 27, right in the beginning of his prime years, his offensive production and efficiency has been the worst of his career. With high expectations of putting together his best campaign yet, Adebayo has limped to an underwhelming 15.6 points on 42.9% shooting but with 9.8 rebounds, 5.0 assists and 1.6 steals. As one of the Heat’s core players, his overall performance is significant, despite his shooting struggles.
Let’s dive into some identifying trends and future predictions from Adebayo.
Overview of the Last 10 Games
Over the last 10-game sample size, Adebayo has averaged 15.8 points, 10.6 rebounds and 6.1 assists on 45% shooting. That stretch has been carried by back-to-back games against the Indiana Pacers weeks ago, where he dropped 30 and 24 points on over 50% from the field.
In the 30-point outing, he also added 11 rebounds, 7 assists and 5 steals in what could go down as his most dominant performance of the season. These 10 games have been very similar to his overall season averages, although he has had more rebounding and assists production. This includes a 20-rebound effort and a triple-double outing in that span.
Key Trends from the Last 10 Games
The unfortunate pattern out of Adebayo recently has been his shooting efficiency. His 45% from the field over the last 10 games and 42.9% on the season is significantly down from his career percentage of 54.2%. The outside shooting, an aspect of his game that he has been diligent on adding to his repertoire, has been slightly improving as of late.
He shot a career-high 35.7% from 3-point range last year and carried over that same success into the Olympics over the summer. But this season he has averaged 32.7% from beyond the arc. Luckily, he has started to slowly but steadily rise that notion, going 37.5% on 3.2 attempts over the last 10 matchups.
Scoring Patterns
Adebayo’s overall scoring patterns have been discouraging this season. His 15.6 points average is the lowest since the 2019-20 campaign. If it wasn’t for that pair of breakout performances in Indiana to start this most recent 10-game stretch, his stats would be lower during that time.
If the Pacers' games are taken away, he has averaged just 13 points in the previous eight games. Opposing team defenses have taken advantage of this, with some completely taking him out of games on that end of the floor. He is still able to get to all his spots with the midrange and dotted line flip shots, but hasn’t knocked them down.
The 3-point volume has been the highest of his career as of late, and taken up more of his shot diet.
Efficiency Trends
As mentioned, Adebayo’s efficiency has started to dip drastically since the back-to-back Indiana games weeks ago. The last Miami win against the LA Lakers was a solid bounce back from the big man. After four straight games of shooting under 39% from the field, he went for 6 of 8 shooting to help take down LA. Although the attempts weren’t a big sample size, it was still good for 75%.
Another encouraging sign has been his free throw shooting efficiency rising. Adebayo has gone 85.7% in the team’s first three December games, although on just 2.3 attempts. Over the last 10 games, his 76.3% from the charity stripe is still above his season average of 72.2%.
Future Predictions
Moving forward, it is fair to expect Adebayo’s averages to steadily rise across the board. His early season slump offensively has been out of character for a player of his caliber. The latest Heat win over the Lakers showcased an encouraging outing from the three-time All-Star in that regard. He looked aggressive in his drives to the rim and was moving much better.
Some potential improvements will consist of his continuous aggression in going up strong in front of the rim. The confidence in those wheelhouse mid-range shots will also be pivotal, where Adebayo has improved each season. Some external factors to keep in mind though will be the Heat’s overall dynamic and strategy, as they will continue to ride the hot hand of Tyler Herro.