Benching key starter could help, but it won't solve the Miami Heat's problems

Opening up the Miami Heat mailbag with this question from Malachi…

"Why is Terry playing in these closing lineups?? He’s been terrible this season."

Terry Rozier has, by most measures, been terrible this season. He’s averaging 13.6 points on 36.5% shooting – all career lows since becoming a full-time starter – with a so-so 2.1/1 assist-to-turnover ratio. 

While he’s shooting a respectable 36.5% from deep, it gets ugly when he gets closer to the rim. Rozier is missing half of his shots within 5 feet of the basket and is 2 for 15 on non-restricted area shots in the paint.

These numbers should get better over time, but his career average at the rim isn’t stunning (58.3% at the rim for his career, according to basketball-reference). Where Rozier would normally see a big bump is in his mid-range numbers, going from 13% to something closer to his typical 40-45% would boost all of his averages and percentages.

Terry Rozier is adjusting to the Heat's new offense.

The problem with that hypothesis is that the Heat have been working the mid-range shot out of the team’s shot diet. By trying to build a more efficient offense, coach Erik Spoelstra took Rozier’s bread and butter off the menu. That means Rozier will be mostly limited to shots at the rim and beyond the arc.

To his credit, Rozier has bought in. He’s taking by the far the fewest amount of mid-range shots of his carer this season while shooting a greater rate of his shots from 3-point range (52%). That’s good!

But drill down again, and even those looks from the efficient spots on the floor aren’t all that efficient. Rozier is taking just 2.5 catch-and-shoot attempts per game compared to pulling up 5.2 times per game. Rozier is a very capable shooter off the catch, cashing in on 48% of those shots this season. But left to create his own shot, he’s shooting just 28.8% on pull-ups.

Again, that should get better with time. Rozier has actually been a better pull-up shooter (about 40%) than off the catch for his career. But most of those pull-ups were taken in the mid-range, which, again, are being excised out of the offense.

So where does that leave Rozier? 

He could embrace more of a catch-and-shoot role, but Tyler Herro has already done that. Somebody has to be on the ball! And Herro has benefited a lot from Rozier driving and kicking to him on the perimeter. Rozier is tied with Bam Adebayo with a team-high 14 assists to Herro this season – double the next teammate. 

Perhaps that can become Bam’s job. With Adebayo struggling to find his spots in the offense, tilting his game into being more of a facilitator could be his way of making a greater impact. Could Bam be the Draymond Green to Herro’s Steph Curry?

If he can, that would facilitate Rozier’s move to the bench, where he can be more free to create the kind of shots he’s comfortable with. 

Spoelstra might be reluctant to do that. It’s only been 10 games, and Rozier’s shooting has been uncharacteristically bad. If he wants to wait for Rozier’s numbers to level out, that would be more than understandable. But how much longer can he wait?

Rozier’s preseason flashes on defense haven’t carried over into the regular season. Bball Index gives him a D grade in their catch-all D-LEBRON defensive metric.

It all works out to a pretty inefficient two-way player. The problem is that Miami might not have a better option. Benching Rozier could help, but he still needs to play better.