Controversial Heat player now the secret to Heat starting lineup success

Miami Heat forward Duncan Robinson has navigated challenges and successes throughout his NBA career. His basketball journey is an extraordinary story, leading The Wall Street Journal to label him as "the most unlikely player in the NBA" and to acknowledge him as "one of the finest shooters in the world."

Throughout the years, Robinson has made considerable advancements in his overall skill set to demonstrate why he's valuable to the Heat organization season after season, despite some setbacks. And it's starting to pay off again. Fast-forward to the current 2024-25 NBA season. Robinson's reintegration into the starting lineup has yielded positive results. Duncan has reclaimed his role and reaffirmed his status as a vital element of Miami's offensive strategy.

Since the debut of their newly formed starting lineup including Robinson, Miami's been a top-5 offense so far in December and stands at a record of 8-2. Due to his willingness to improve and adapt, Duncan has made a significant impact. It's a true testament to his dedication and perseverance.

Robinson's contributions as an all-time leader in 3-point field goals have been crucial to the team's recent success. Miami ranks fifth in the Eastern Conference standings, with a record of 13-10. Currently, on a four-game winning streak, they achieved a big feat by beating the top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers.

This season, the difference is that Robinson is getting going early in a rotation that meshes well and appreciates his offensive abilities. He's able to make plays more confidently and create space on the court. Duncan has earned his spot back. Once again, one of the best shooters in the NBA is making his mark and thriving.

Miami Heat are the best offensively with Robinson on the court

One of the most significant decisions head coach Erik Spoelstra has implemented this season, at least up to this point, is the adjustment to his starting lineup consisting of Robinson, Tyler Herro, Jimmy Butler, Haywood Highsmith, and Bam Adebayo. 

Miami's former starting lineup recorded a minus-20.8 Net rating per 100 possessions over eight games. Among all NBA lineups that have played at least 100+ minutes together, the Heat's newly adjusted starting lineup boasts the highest Net rating of plus-20.8 in 10 games.

It's evident that the Heat's performance significantly improves with Robinson on the court as a starter. When he is, the team has a plus-11.2 Net rating, which would be the highest in the NBA. In contrast, their performance declines when he is off the court, reflected in a minus-7.4 rating that would place them 27th in the league.

In their last three contests, the Heat have achieved an Offensive Rating of 132.2, marking only the third instance in franchise history where they have demonstrated such offensive efficiency over a three-game period.

Notably, this is the first occurrence in franchise history of three consecutive games with such high offensive output since April. This distinction is significant, as games in April often see inflated scoring due to teams either concluding their seasons or resting players in preparation for the playoffs.

In summary, this may represent the most impressive offensive stretch in the franchise's history, occurring immediately following their least productive offensive performance of the season, where they managed only 93.3 points per 100 possessions during a back-to-back game against the Boston Celtics.

This offensive approach has predominantly involved Adebayo in delay actions or post-split scenarios, where Robinson screens and subsequently cuts. He has excelled in this aspect for several years, demonstrating a keen awareness as a screener, adeptly knowing when to maintain the screen and when to release it. Additionally, there have been instances of cuts during transition plays, which appear to be a relatively new development; rather than solely pursuing 3-point shots, he opts to cut toward the basket.

However, it's Robinson’s off-ball movement that has been particularly noteworthy and has garnered attention. His cuts during delay actions and post-splits have always been integral to his game, but what seems novel is his increased activity as a cutter while other plays unfold. This enhancement has significantly elevated his threat level, transforming him from merely a spacer into a more dynamic offensive player. 

For instance, rather than remaining stationary, Robinson promptly initiates a cut and curls toward the rim for a scoring opportunity. This not only facilitates his access to the basket but also provides his teammates with additional options.

The most significant change lies in the confidence and speed with which Duncan approaches closeouts. Previously, this tactic seemed to be a fallback option or a response when his 3-point shot was unavailable. Now, it appears to be a confident choice Robinson actively embraces. His role evolution is remarkable. Consistency has been the key for Miami.

Robinson is thriving again in his starting role

Rewind to two seasons ago. Robinson struggled significantly as opponents capitalized on his limited ability to drive to the basket. They often pressured him off the 3-point line and targeted him defensively. Robinson is no stranger to adversity, experiencing different forms throughout his basketball journey. He believes that real-life adversity puts basketball adversity into perspective.

Determined to improve, Robinson focused on enhancing his mid-range game during the following offseason, learning to effectively attack defenders closing out on him, whether by driving to the basket or passing to open teammates.

By refining his ball-handling skills during dribble handoff plays—a fundamental aspect of the Heat's offensive system—Robinson has regained substantial playing time this season, despite experiencing some challenging shooting performances in the beginning.

Duncan has started to find his confidence and stride again. It has paid off because the sharpshooter has been ignitable and consistent lately. Most importantly, the influence Robinson exerts when performing at his best is invaluable, especially in light of his expanded role and increased responsibilities.

An astonishing statistic demonstrates that the Heat performs significantly better when Robinson is playing at a high level. When Robinson scores 20+ points, the Heat have a 44-11 record. His influence is evident in his impressive performances, most of which have occurred as a starter. 

Robinson recently delivered two commendable performances during some of the team’s more difficult games. He scored 19 points in the major 121-111 victory against the Phoenix Suns, finishing with five 3-pointers, two rebounds, four assists, and one steal on 7 of 12 shooting.

On Dec 8., Duncan had one of the best games of the season so far, finishing with 23 points in the victory against the Cavaliers, achieving 7 of 11 shooting accuracy (64%), and successfully making 4 of 5 attempts from beyond the arc. In two games, Robinson put up 42 points on a combined 14 for 23 shooting and 9 for 14 from the 3-point line. He keeps setting the tone offensively in games. Spoelstra said it best about Robinson and the impact he brings to the roster.

"I love his ignitability," Spoelstra said. "Duncan has the ability to blow open games. And you know, five out of six and a quarter in the game is done, and that avalanche is coming soon, which I think will also really help our offense." 

Coach Spo's sentiment rings true. Robinson’s ability to create shots not only benefits him but also significantly enhances the opportunities for his teammates. Defenders are compelled to remain vigilant, preventing them from leaving him unguarded, which in turn allows the Heat's star trio to operate effectively in the paint.

Robinson excels at moving without the ball, utilizing sharp cuts and aggressive slashes. This is especially helpful as a starter, where he can play off of stars like Butler and Adebayo. This dynamic enhances the team's overall chemistry, as Robinson, Adebayo, Butler, and Herro represent the four longest-tenured members of the roster.

From 3-point specialist to complete basketball player

Recently, the partnership between Robinson and Herro has emerged as one of the most formidable shooting backcourts in the NBA, reminiscent of a new iteration of the 'Splash Brothers' in the 305. Robinson’s development has been a quietly significant aspect of Miami's lineup for some time. No longer merely a spot-up shooter, Duncan has honed his skills to drive to the basket and has become a proficient scorer near the rim. Additionally, he has improved his defensive capabilities considerably.

Here are some key improvements illustrating Robinson’s development into a more well-rounded basketball player, and why he's become so valuable again.  

Elite Shooting

As a starter, Robinson is making 41.9% of his shots from long distance while averaging 13.3 points, 2.9 assists, 2.5 rebounds, and 2.8 threes in 26.2 minutes per game.

Robinson's ability to score from long-range forces defenses to stretch creates opportunities for teammates Butler and Adebayo to maneuver effectively in the paint. He also now prioritizes finding teammates who are cutting to the basket and delivers accurate passes to those positioned on the perimeter.

Robinson's shot creation enhances the spacing on the court for both himself and his teammates.

He is recognized as the quickest player in NBA history to make 1,000 3-pointers, accomplishing this feat in just 344 games. Additionally, he holds the Miami Heat franchise record for the most 3-pointers made, totaling 1,066, with 54 made this season.

Duncan is undoubtedly not the same player he was four years ago or even last year. It is essential to examine how he has developed and progressed.

Here’s his percentage of shots as 3-pointers (and the percentage of his makes assisted):

• 2020-21: 85.5% (97.2%)
• 2021-22: 86.0% (96.1%)
• 2022-23: 81.0% (100%)
• 2023-24: 70.1% (91.4%)
• 2024-25: 69.5% (88.9%)

These basic statistics do not reflect the progress Robinson has made or the transformation in his playing style. While the two statistics presented above are remarkable, he has traditionally been labeled merely as a 3-point specialist. Such a characterization undermines Robinson's true capabilities.

In 2024, Robinson recorded the same number of 2-point field goals in 11 games as he did in 42 games during 2023. He has created a more diverse shot profile and has evolved beyond the role of a player solely focused on his best skill. Let us explore further.

Here are his 2-point shot attempts per game:

• 2020-21: 1.4
• 2021-22: 1.3
• 2022-23: 1.1
• 2023-24: 3.0
• 2024-25: 2.9

The following data indicates that while Robinson has broadened his game to include more 3-point shooting, he has also significantly increased his ability to drive to the rim when he ventures beyond the arc. He has achieved a remarkable rate compared to his earlier seasons. Such development is not typically reflected in Robinson's standard box score. 

A key factor contributing to this improvement is Duncan's long-standing ability to utilize his shooting skills to create opportunities for cutting to the basket, a strategy he has refined over the years.

Attacking the Rim

Another notable aspect is how effortlessly Robinson appears to reach the rim. He has developed into a proficient scorer near the basket. Over the years, his attempts at the rim have notably increased, rising from 1.21 in 2020 to 3.88 in 2024.

Robinson's improved technique, characterized by longer strides, effective fakes, and enhanced ball protection, allows him to navigate directly toward the basket rather than away from it. Importantly, this is just the beginning; while his finishing skills are commendable, he has demonstrated the potential for even greater contributions.

Whether through cutting to the basket or effectively responding to closeouts, Robinson has proven adept at making the right decisions to find open teammates. His status as an elite passer is well-established, but he is now encountering significantly more opportunities to showcase this skill.

Pick-and-Roll

Robinson has demonstrated significant progress and continues to improve with each game. Beyond the sheer number of drives, it is noteworthy that his shooting and passing statistics are relatively balanced. He possesses the ability to penetrate the rim independently while also facilitating opportunities for his teammates. Such advancements would be commendable for any player, but Robinson's development does not end here.

Duncan has increasingly engaged in pick-and-roll situations, showcasing remarkable effectiveness. It is particularly impressive to observe that in these PnR scenarios, he consistently applies pressure at the rim. To clarify, Robinson is exerting relentless rim pressure during pick-and-roll plays.

Robinson has developed into a more commendable defender, adeptly maneuvering without the ball through cutting and slashing movements. The elite shooter is skilled at outpacing defenders off the dribble, driving toward the middle and baseline, navigating through traffic, and finishing strong. His performance in the PnR has been particularly striking, as he skillfully maintains his dribble, compels defenders to navigate over screens, repositions himself effectively, and utilizes hesitation to disrupt the defensive balance, ultimately allowing him to reach the rim successfully.

Robinson continues to be ignitable 

Robinson is providing Miami's offense with a new perspective and an extra alternative. Instead of solely relying on shooting from screens, he is focusing on facilitating for his teammates by strategically choosing his opportunities and controlling the tempo of the game.

The era in which teams could easily force Robinson away from the 3-point line due to his inability to exploit closeouts is over, which is promising for Miami now, especially when they approach the playoffs.

Last season, Robinson was among the 14 NBA players nominated for the 2024 Most Improved Player award, garnering four third-place votes. This was well deserved and shows that proof is in the pudding. Robinson's resiliency is inspiring, and it’s truly been amazing to see the player he has become. 

Robinson has accomplished so much in his seven seasons with Miami. The sharpshooter says while things in the NBA may appear linear, nothing is perfect, and always a work in progress. In his second edition of Inside the Heat that recently aired, Duncan talked about what he's learned about himself, his game, and what kind of player he'd like to be for the rest of his career.

"I love this visual of the path to mastery," Robinson said "It's this visual of these long plateaus, these brief down turns, and then, these quick, exponential improvements."

Robinson's goal is striving to always become the best version of himself on and off the court. There is a reason why he is one of the best shooters in the league. The truth is, we haven’t seen all of what #55 can do. His return to the Heat's starting lineup has produced favorable outcomes.