If you’re a Heat fan, you’ve probably seen a bunch of chatter about guys like Pelle Larsson and Nikola Jovic being the X-factors for the team. Those aren’t bad answers, but there’s a much better answer hidden in plain sight.
So why is it not Jovic or Larsson? Both have new contract extensions and could be key to the Heat having a strong young core post-Giannis trade.
Well, I’d argue that those are the two players with the most to prove, thanks to the investment the front office made in them. That doesn’t make them X factors, though.
Dru Smith is the X-factor the Heat didn't know they needed
The X-factor is someone who could impact the trajectory of not only his career but also the Heat’s ceiling as a team. And that guy is Dru Smith.
Now, why am I singling out a backup point guard that many fans wouldn’t even consider all that good? Because no matter how he’s played, head coach Erik Spoelstra seems to trust him. A lot.
I actually understand why he does, no matter how many shots he misses; he defends. And incredibly well.
Outside of his incredibly high steal percentage (1.4 steals in only 16 minutes a game last year), Smith also had the highest defensive box plus minus of any Miami Heat player.
If Smith were to become a league-average offensive player, he would instantly become one of the Heat’s bench players. You could even argue he would be the best, when you consider how good he is defensively.
The thing is, Smith’s start to his career is actually very similar to starting point guard Davion Mitchell. Both are profiled as elite defensive players who couldn’t do a thing offensively.
Last year was Smith’s first year playing a full season, and it took Mitchell two full seasons to become an average three-point shooter. Why couldn’t Smith follow the path of not only Mitchell but also past Heat defensive demons like Gabe Vincent? After all, he’s gonna benefit from more open looks in minutes where he gets to share the court with Giannis.
Plus, if it’s not Smith, then it comes down to depending on a two-way guy like Tre Donaldson or looking to the trade market with limited assets. Smith proving to be valuable allows the Heat to worry about the other issues that will inevitably come up on this roster.
Smith is currently dealing with an injury, but we know that when he comes back, coach Spo will use him. If that’s already a certainty, then he needs to perform.
If he does, the Heat's bench depth and point guard depth will be a whole lot better. And a good bench will be key to achieving what the Heat want to do this season.
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