Early data suggests the Heat made a mistake with the Terry Rozier trade

The Miami Heat organization did not acquire any big-name free agents during the summer. However, despite the onslaught of criticism and discussions surrounding the team's lack of urgency and ability to land a superstar, the front office opted to focus its resources ahead of the NBA trade deadline.

In January, Miami traded veteran point guard Kyle Lowry and a first-round pick to acquire guard Terry Rozier from the Charlotte Hornets. This year is Rozier's first full NBA season with the Heat, and the fit is still questionable.

Are Terry Rozier's inefficiencies holding back the Heat?

A recurring theme in Rozier's less efficient performances is his shooting. Throughout his career, the point guard has consistently taken a high volume of shots, particularly during his time with the Hornets, when he averaged 20 points on 16.7 shots per game.

In Miami, Rozier is no longer the leading scorer that he once was. He now shares the court with three other high-usage players accustomed to averaging 20 points per game. Through seven games, Rozier is taking just 12.3 shots per game, but his efficiency hasn't improved.

This season, Rozier is making 55% on 3.3 catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts. However, this type of shot accounts for only 26% of his total field goal attempts. His most common shot is the side-step pull-up 3-pointer, where he has an overall shooting field goal percentage of 34% on 4.3 attempts.

Additionally, Rozier is shooting 47% on shots taken within 10 feet, representing 27% of his total shot attempts.

His statistics show that he would benefit from playing off the ball more and being more deliberate with the types of shots he takes. When Rozier isn't catching and shooting, there are often wide-open looks that he either misses or passes up. Sometimes, Rozier makes shots harder for himself when they don't need to be.

It's essential to recognize that Rozier's difficulties extend beyond mere luck in shooting. He remains notably streaky and inconsistent, with much of this stemming from his 3-point shooting. Below is Rozier's shot chart. The spots from where Rozier is getting his shots are good, but he just needs to make more of them.

Miami is just a few weeks into their 2024-25 regular season, and Rozier's shooting efficiency has notably declined. In the Heat's first seven games played this season, Rozier has made fewer than a third of his attempts four times. In Wednesday's loss to the Suns, Rozier went 2-for-10 in 32 minutes.

A field goal percentage of 20% is just abysmal and unacceptable if he wants to contribute to winning games. This is especially worrisome considering what the Heat gave up to acquire Rozier.

It's well-recognized that Rozier is often the primary target for opposing defenses. When he struggles defensively, it must be compensated with a strong offensive performance, which isn't the case at the moment. Shooting below 40% from the field in a couple of games is telling and can become a precursor for what to expect if Rozier doesn't start to make his minutes count.

The team's recent losses can't be attributed solely to Rozier. However, for the Heat to improve, they will require a significantly better performance from him.

While Rozier has demonstrated competence as an outside shooter throughout his NBA career, he has never ranked among the league's most efficient players. Rozier's strengths lie in his ability to apply pressure on the rim and his habit of making timely, contested shots.

It will be crucial to monitor Rozier's game as the season continues. If his efficiency doesn't improve, the trade for him could be seen as a big mistake.