The Miami Heat are off to a familiar rocky start. 3-3 doesn't seem bad on the surface, but when you peel the layers, you realize the Heat have only beaten bottom-feeder teams. To make matters worse, the Heat haven't beaten a "good" team since April 2nd. Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler have not shown consistent greatness, the third-quarter meltdowns resurface each game, and the starters are -20.89 in 79 minutes together.
There hasn't been much to hang your hat on besides Tyler Herro taking another leap. And this leap is best for the Miami Heat and Herro's value leaguewide.
The "Make Tyler Herro a sixth man" conversation has been mute this season. Herro's arguably been the best player on the team, although he's struggled a bit in the second half of games. Herro's been more aggressive about attacking closeouts and getting two feet in the paint and has fully embraced this off-ball role. The drives and rim attempts have been fun, as Herro shoots 69% at the cup. That number may drop, but his process and mindset set the Heat up for successful offensive possessions. We love the drives, but the catch and shooting will take Herro to the next level.
Herro said he would get off the ball more this year, and he's been a man of his word. He's third on the Heat in touches per game at 57.7 and is taking 53% of his shots from 3 (a career-high). Herro is letting it fly more off the catch than he's dribbling into traffic to get off his tough, self-created middies.
Once again Tyler Herro only took one true mid-range shot last night, and they were available. He's only taken four all season with only 6.5% of his shots coming between 10 feet and the arc, down from 26.4% last year. Very impressive buy-in and execution from him.
— Couper Moorhead (@CoupNBA) November 5, 2024
Those shots have a place in this offense but are not the main ingredient in Herro's current game. He's stretching the defense, shooting a scorching 48% on 5.2 catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts. The accuracy isn't a new development, but Herro had never shot more than four catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts before this year. There is tremendous value in a high-volume 3-point shooter with driving chops.
We all remember the summer of 2023 when Tyler Herro faced significant scrutiny. He was the key piece in a potential trade for Damian Lillard. Fans and team executives were unsure how valuable Herro was as an undersized, short-armed combo guard. Teams weren't lining up to trade for a max contract player who wasn't ultra-efficient, struggled to drive to the rim, and didn't excel defensively. While concerns about his defense are still valid, the criticisms regarding his efficiency are diminishing.
Herro has consistently shot nearly 40% from 3-point range throughout his career, which will continue as he increases his volume. Herro is currently shooting 44% on 8.7 3PA. Those attempts should reach ten as he embraces this off-ball catch-and-shoot role. This improvement will make Herro more efficient (his 60.8 eFG% would be a career high) and more appealing to teams across the league. Sure, he'll never lock up number one options like Klay Thompson did during the Golden State dynasty, but Herro can replicate Klay's volume shooting with more off-the-dribble juice. If he continues to display these prime Klay Thompson-like numbers, there will never be another conversation about how valuable Tyler Herro is.
Stats as of 11/05/2024 via Cleaning The Glass, NBA.com, Basketball Reference, and PBP Stats