For all the brain power burned debating, analyzing, and agonizing over the Miami Heat’s offseason, we still don’t know how much of a difference their moves will make. If you ask the folks over at ESPN, though, the impact of this summer’s transactions and overall approach will be negligible—and potentially nonexistent.
The Worldwide Leader is in the process of releasing its Summer Forecast series. With their record projections and preseason awards ballots officially in the books, it’s clear they don’t think much of the Heat.
This panel of NBA insiders has Miami winning 39 games, and finishing ninth in the Eastern Conference. That’s two more victories than last year, but would represent a one-spot slide in the standings.
Perhaps more notably, ESPN also polled its experts for their major award ballots. The Heat did not have a single player appear in the top five of any category.
These Miami predictions and snubs are notable
A ninth-place finish and sub-.500 finish is not outside Miami’s realm of possibility. The East is wide-open, but it has plenty of swing teams like the Heat populating the middle of the pecking order.
Putting the Heat behind a Boston Celtics team that doesn’t have Jayson Tatum and isn’t trying nevertheless speaks volumes. The absence of a top-five candidate in the awards section is even more telltale.
Bam Adebayo is supposed to be a perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Miami may need Jaime Jaquez Jr. to enter the Most Improved Player discussion for its season to reach a meaningful peak. Jakucionis’ absence from the Rookie of the Year ladder is far from damning, but it says a great deal about how much people expect him to play.
The Heat are not getting a ton of love
It doesn’t take much to write off these predictions and snubs as irrelevant, or disrespectful. They’re also not surprising.
The Heat continue to be viewed through the “Did they acquire a superstar?” lens. They didn’t, and that’s prompted many to dismiss them as a non-threat.
This stance skews too far toward the pessimistic end of the spectrum. Miami didn’t have the perfect offseason. It failed to meaningfully upgrade the primary-playmaker slot unless Kasparas Jakucionis pops from the jump. Its backup-big rotation is currently rough. And the logic behind the Haywood Highsmith trade remains baffling at best.
Still, the Heat have also quietly assembled an enviably deep rotation, despite its enduring on-court holes. And while concern over the primary-playmaker ranks is fair, the Norman Powell acquisition was both a freaking heist, and bound to significantly elevate the ceiling of the offense.
Agree, disagree, maintain indifference, indulge blissful ignorance—it doesn’t matter. These preseason projections are a glimpse into how the Heat are viewed nationally, by both the media, and general NBA fans. It’s on Miami to prove them wrong.