With 29 games left after the All-Star break, the Miami Heat have some work to do to climb the Eastern Conference standings. These next two months will help determine the shape of the post-Jimmy Butler era.
It seems like a yearly occurance that, around this time of the season, the Heat are left looking up at the standings wondering how they are going to avoid the play-in tournament and claim a top six seed and guaranteed spot in the playoffs.
The Heat hope to kickstart the post-Jimmy Butler era with a playoff berth, but every game counts.
For the last two years, they’ve fallen short, needing the play-in tournament to advance. The Heat hope to avoid that this time, but they continue to tempt fate. Rely on the play-in tournament enough and eventually a poorly timed shooting slump or unlucky injury will end your season early.
There’s still time for the Heat to make up ground. They will resume the season in a traffic jam with two others teams – the Orlando Magic and Atlanta Hawks – for spots 7-9 in the standings, three games out of the sixth seed and four games out of fifth. Climbing higher than fifth in the standings, at this point, is unlikely.
According to Basketball Reference, the Heat have a 71.3% chance of making the playoffs and a 24.4% chance of earning a top-six seed and avoiding the playoffs.
In terms of realistic goal setting, the Heat should aim for sixth. That would likely result in a first round matchup against the New York Knicks. The Knicks are beatable, but will be rightly favored in a series. But the Heat also have to adjust their expectations. A deep playoff run is a longshot. This season is more about understand what they have and deciding what they intend to build upon going forward. A playoff series is a great stress test for such takeaways.
Making the playoffs is more than a growth opportunity, it also ensures that they keep next year’s draft pick. The Heat owe a first-round pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder, either this year’s, protected for picks 1-14, or next year’s, completely unprotected. There’s an interesting philosphofical argument to be had about which pick is worth keeping, but teams generally prefer to mitigate the risk of losing an unprotected pick (and the flexibility of trading next year’s first-round pick).
The Heat limped into the All-Star break carrying a four-game losing streak, the lingering fog of the Jimmy Butler trade and dealing with a stomach bug that effected nearly half of the locker room. They needed the break.
Before playing their first game, the Heat should log a practice or two that would mark the first for Andrew Wiggins, Davion Mitchell and Kyle Anderson since arriving in the Butler trade. That will help establish chemistry and get players on the same page.
Now for the good news.
Over the next 29 games, the Heat have one of the easier schedules in the league. According to Tankathon, they have the sixth easiest remaining schedule. Winnable games against the Toronto Raptors, Hawks and Washington Wizards are waiting for them within the first couple of weeks of this playoff push.
Players should be recovered from the stomach bug, and the Heat are not dealing with any other major injuries besides Dru Smith, out for the season with an Achilles injury.
Coach Erik Spoelstra has landed on a starting five of Mitchell, Tyler Herro, Wiggins, Bam Adebayo and Kel’el Ware. The bench rotation involves Duncan Robinson, Haywood Highsmith, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Nikola Jovic. Others such as Terry Rozier, Pelle Larsson, Alec Burks and Kyle Anderson may also see minutes.
The best-case scenario? The Heat’s new starting five gels, they take advantage of their soft schedule and go on a winning stretch that sets them up for a playoff berth.
Worst case? The Heat find more creative ways to lose, the offense continues to falter late in games, a defense that has the potential to be a top five unit never materializes, and the Heat stumble in the play-in tournament.
This season hasn’t gone as the Heat had planned, but there is still time to make the most of it and hammer out a foundation for the next chapter. The Butler era may be over, but the Heat aren’t starting over. They have a three-time All-Star and franchise cornerstone in Adebayo, a newly-minted All-Star in Herro and other highly-regarded role players on the roster. The next couple of months are about coming together and establishing an identity for this next chapter.