The Miami Heat are set to embark on the 2025-26 campaign in one of the more awkward positions in the NBA. The Heat don't have a roster elite enough to make a genuine run in the playoffs in 2026, but it isn't in a rebuilding mode and would need a Dallas Mavericks-like miracle to land a top pick in the 2026 draft.
So it's with that in mind, what would actually constitute a failure for Miami's season in 2025-26?
One scenario would be a nightmare for the Heat
Slowly but surely, the Heat are assembling some pieces that one can convince themselves can gel and be a squad that is a sum of its parts rather than being reliant on a true "star."
Most Heat fans would probably view a stronger showing in the first round of the playoffs as a "success," and one could build a narrative that Miami would be ready to "take the next step" with one splash signing in next year's free agency.
Conversely, if the season went south, one could argue for entering a seller's market and acquiring a premium draft pick that they haven't had in quite some time.
However, if you want to argue that one scenario would constitute 2025-26 as a failure, it would be a repeat of how 2024-25 ended.
Miami won their play-in games to make the playoffs, and then were ceremoniously dumped by Cleveland in four games. Given the turmoil of the season and how the roster was constructed, it was expected, and not too many people batted an eye.
However, as Miami continues to build its youth movement, the Heat have to show growth in 2025-26.
With Tyler Herro's contract extension acting as a looming backdrop, combined with Bam Adebayo getting a pay bump in 2026, and combined with Kel'el Ware being the chosen one as trade talks swirled this offseason, a repeat season of getting knocked out of the first round in a sweep would be a disaster.
Because in the NBA, you either need to be moving up the standings or you need to bottom out and reset. Being stuck on the hamster wheel leads nowhere long-term.