External expectations for the Miami Heat's 2025-26 NBA season sit somewhere between tempered and nonexistent. They're effectively off the national radar, with most projections predicting they'll hover around .500 and find themselves in the Eastern Conference's play-in fight once again.
For some franchises, this might be a slap in the face. With this Heat group, though, they wouldn't have it any other way. They've shocked the hoops world before—looking at you, eighth-seed-turned-NBA-Finalist 2022-23 Heat—and they're quietly poised to do it again.
They may have scored the biggest heist on draft night and the biggest heist of trade season. They still have the league's best coach in Erik Spoelstra, plus an in-prime star combo with Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro, and a strong supporting cast around them.
Why are expectations down for this team again? It might be that Miami is so often connected to potential splashy acquisitions that when there aren't cannonballs dropping in Biscayne Bay, national pundits stop paying attention. If history has told us anything, though, Heat fans should know not to make this same mistake.
No one handles the underdog role better than the Heat.
Early projections are, at best, educated guesses about what might happen during the upcoming season. They don't come entirely from nowhere, but they also aren't road maps toward any guaranteed outcomes.
Even if they were, though, the Heat have done so well as a surprise squad that even a forgettable regular season doesn't necessarily mean anything about their playoff outlook.
Granted, their biggest surprises in the recent past—the aforementioned 2023 Finals trip and the 2020 trek to the title round that started from the No. 5 seed—were most clearly keyed by Jimmy Butler, who routinely found a way to summon superstar abilities when they were needed most. Miami obviously doesn't have that ace up its sleeve any longer.
What the Heat do have, though, is an Eastern Conference that feels as wide open as ever. Injuries took both the reigning conference champs (Indiana Pacers) and the 2024 world champs (Boston Celtics) out of the running already. They're also mucking up the outlook for the Philadelphia 76ers, too, and last season highlighted just how debilitating their injury issues can be.
The Milwaukee Bucks have Giannis Antetokounmpo, but not a co-star for him. The Cleveland Cavaliers have a strong roster, but they've been unable to shatter their second-round ceiling. The New York Knicks look good on paper, but will their defense be the same without Tom Thibodeau calling the shots? And is everyone certain that the Orlando Magic were only a (pricey-as-heck) Desmond Bane trade away from joining the contending ranks?
The Heat, who quietly made the most of an opportunistic offseason, might feel sneakily good about their chances. Spoelstra routinely squeezes the most out of his players, and he has some really talented ones at his disposal. Plus, there are ways in which Herro and Adebayo can improve, which says nothing of the many young players with untapped potential on this team.
Consider this all a long-winded word of caution to not overlook this organization. Rivals who've seen what this bunch can do when the lights get bright most certainly aren't.