With training camp just around the corner for the Miami Heat, one of the headlines that is expected to pop back up is the contract situation for Tyler Herro. The Heat have between October 1 and October 20 to sign Herro to a three-year, $150 million extension, and if they wait until next summer, the price tag goes up to four years and $207 million.
Given how this summer went and the lack of landing a big-time free agent, the Heat could be tempted to lock up Herro to ensure they have a "star" of their own in Miami.
Doing so would ignore all the red flags that come with it.
Losing out on free agents should cause Miami to panic
In case one needs a reminder, Miami went 37-45 and was swept by Cleveland in the playoffs.
That was WITH Herro, mind you.
So, yeah, the Heat missed out on Kevin Durant and never seriously pursued some other rumored trades that included Giannis Antetokounmpo and DeMar DeRozan, but that doesn't mean they need to throw money at a player they wouldn't consider if he were a free agent coming from another team.
Even before his injury, which is going to knock him out until at least November, the conundrum with Herro is that he is a perfectly fine value with the $31 million he is set to make in 2025-26.
He has not, however, proved he was a night-to-night $50 million superstar capable of putting a team on his back. During Miami's nine-game losing streak in March of last season, Herro topped 22 points just twice.
He played great in the two play-in games, only to turn around and top 22 points just once in Miami's four games against Cleveland.
Combined with being 29th in the NBA in assists and 60th in field goal percentage, it just doesn't make sense to turn him into one of the select group of guards making over $50 million a season.
Herro is not Durant or Antetokounmpo, and so there is no need to panic and try to pay him like he is.
If Herro returns healthy and steps his game up and balls out in 2025-26, then you live with the decision not to make the deal now, knowing you have all of next offseason to get a deal done.
But rushing into a deal now for the sake of roster stability isn't the route the Heat should take.