The Haywood Highsmith injury is a potentially massive blow for the Miami Heat. A Jaime Jaquez Jr. breakout in his third season would go a long way toward changing that.
Sure, Highsmith’s eight-to-10-week timetable for return from right knee surgery puts him back right around opening night. But he won’t have gone through any of Miami’s training camp, or preseason. It could take him time to regain his footing as the team’s best three-and-D weapon.
If nothing else, Jaquez is facing a ton of pressure entering Year 3 anyway. He finished fourth in Rookie of the Year voting and ninth on the Sixth Man of the Year ballot during his inaugural campaign, and then failed to meet expectations last season. This was always going to be a make-or-break moment for him.
The stakes are simply higher now.
Jaquez is the current Heat player best suited to replace Highsmith’s defense
Highsmith routinely guarded four positions last year, a body of work that included lining up opposite star guards, wings, and combo forwards. Short of rolling the dice on an unsigned free agent, Jaquez is the Heat’s best shot at having another one of those players on the roster.
Davion Mitchell is a fierce defender, but shouldn’t spend too much time checking bigger wings. Andrew Wiggins has shown he can ratchet up his on-ball work, but he can struggle against smaller, quicker ball-handlers.
Jaquez’s defensive utility covers a larger share of the positional spectrum. He basically split his time evenly last season against shooting guards, small forwards and power forwards, while still logging almost 17 percent of his reps versus point guards, according to BBall-Index.
Increasing his value will come down to how he holds up against more primary assignments. The Heat are more inclined to use him as a helper, or on lower-profile assignments. He did sponge up reps versus primary shot creators, but many of them weren’t starter-level players.
Tackling those assignments is something Jaquez has the potential to do. He’ll have to get better about navigating ball screens, and even then, he could struggle versus more explosive creators. But he’s already proven he can use time, space, and anticipation to his advantage.
Miami needs Jaquez to do more of this one thing
There’s a chance Jaquez’s success (or failure) in Year 3 will come down to one swing skill: his jumper. He banged in 32.2 percent of his triples as a rookie, and then saw that clip fall to 31.1 percent last season.
Nobody expects him to rain treys off the dribble. His improvement starts with hitting more of the gimmes. Most of his threes went unguarded last year, and he knocked them down at a 36.4 percent clip. The quality of his looks should go up even further with Tyler Herro and Norman Powell creating opportunities for everyone with their on-ball work.
Jaquez also cannot hesitate as much to launch off the catch. Among 217 players who have taken as many treys as him over the past two seasons, his 3.3 attempts per 36 minutes rank 214th. That can’t stand.
Nudging up the volume isn’t just about making them, either. It’s about keeping defenses honest, opening the floor for everyone else, and giving Jaquez more of an opportunity to showcase his decision-making when attacking closeouts, and decongested lanes.
There will be an opportunity for him to flip the narrative. Highsmith is the player who most infringed upon his minutes. This is Jaquez’s chance to prove he’s just as, if not more, important to Miami’s success.