Opening up the Miami Heat mailbag…
If the Heat miss out on getting a star, should we just run it back while saving money? (Cut Duncan, let go of Davion, trade Highsmith.) We know this team isn't good enough, so why not enter 2027 with a high lottery pick and cap space?
Nobody wants to hear this, but I wouldn’t rule it out. I’ll go back to something Pat Riley said during his state of the franchise when asked about potentially paying the luxury tax for a third straight year.
“We have to make an adjustment. It gets punitive financially,” he said. “This is not a priority, but it is in order to manage the financial part of the team. We will try to get out and then back in and reset [the clock on the repeater tax.”
Should the Heat just play for 2026-27?
The Heat have been a tax team in each of the last two years and need to avoid the luxury tax to avoid the punitive repeater tax. Currently, the Heat are $9.4 million away from the luxury tax line with 13 players under contract.
That doesn’t include Davion Mitchell, who is a restricted free agent, or the 20th pick in the draft.
If the Heat strike out on Kevin Durant, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and whoever else shakes loose, they could theoretically re-sign Mitchell, draft a player at 20 in June and run back the roster.
(They may have to make a payroll-trimming trade or waive Duncan Robinson, who, if cut by June 29, would save Miami $10 million.)
But I’ll also take a moment here to remind you of something else Riley said: “We probably won’t run it back.”
There are ways to add a star player and remain under the tax. Miami’s books are pretty clean after the Jimmy Butler trade, save for Terry Rozier’s $26.6 million salary, and they have break-glass-in-case-of-emergency options (waiving and stretching Rozier, waiving Robinson.)
But if they don’t add a star, I’d expect the front office to make some lateral moves to shake up the roster while avoiding longterm salary, try to bring back Mitchell, and wait for the summer of 2026, when they are projected to have more than $40 million in cap space, when players like Durant, Luka Doncic and Trae Young could be free agents.