Over the last decade, there have been a few big mistakes that have haunted the Miami Heat for several reasons. Even though they may never fully admit it, signing Duncan Robinson to a five-year, $90 million contract never quite panned out. Robinson never lived up to that contract and was a lesser player than he was in the years that led to that contract extension.
However, there's a chance the end could be near for one of the most overpaid sharpshooters in the league. As he prepares to enter the final year of his contract, Robinson's deal for the 2025-26 season is only partially guaranteed. That means in the event that the Heat don't trade him this offseason, they could waive him before July 8 to avoid his contract becoming fully guaranteed.
Either way, it does seem as if Robinson's days with the Heat are probably numbered. If Miami doesn't trade him early on in the offseason, he'll immediately emerge as a prime trade target because of his expiring deal. Unless he has a huge bounce-back year, it's hard to envision Miami re-signing him after this year, especially considering the big-picture questions they have to answer elsewhere.
Robinson's legacy with the Heat
In a vacuum, there's little pushback with the idea that Robinson is probably going to be remembered as one of the best 3-point shooters in Heat history. He's the leader in 3-point baskets made in Heat history and is one of the most decorated 3-point shooters in NBA history, period. However, especially over the last couple of seasons, injuries have taken a toll on his body. It's limited his effectiveness and availability for the Heat, too.
Over his last three years in Miami, Robinson's minutes have been volatile, and during the Heat's last two playoff appearances, he's played a minimal role and has struggled with his 3-point stroke. As the Heat enters an offseason where Pat Riley has already publicly admitted that changes are needed, it's hard to imagine Robinson, being a prime candidate to be moved because of his contract, emerging unscathed this summer.
Is there a scenario in which Robinson plays a big role for the Heat this season? Absolutely. However, with his recent injury history and the fact that he's going to be 32 years old by the end of next season, there may not be a huge momentum that would point toward a new contract for Robinson in Miami.
And if the Heat understands that Robinson's time with the team is probably coming to an end, it's absolutely in the best interest of the team to try and find an exit route. Because his contract isn't fully guaranteed until July 8, it's probably best that it happens sooner rather than later.