The Miami Heat obviously have big plans for an upcoming NBA offseason. Before finding out if their grandest wishes will be granted or not, though, they have the 2025-26 campaign to get through.
It should be a pretty interesting one, too. Perhaps it could feature a potentially extended Tyler Herro leveling up, or maybe even Norman Powell swiping that spot as the top offensive option on the perimeter. Maybe Andrew Wiggins finds his footing, or maybe he's shipped out of town. And there will be the annual update on the state of Bam Adebayo's offense.
The season will be loaded with individual challenges that will all contribute to the collective's goal. But what, exactly, does that standard look like? Would adding a handful of wins and finding their way out of the Play-In Tournament again qualify as a success? In a word—nah. Given the wide-open nature of the Eastern Conference, the Heat should be dead set on snagging a top-six seed and hoping to enter the top four.
It's a sixth-seed-or-bust kind of season in Miami.
The Heat hardly stole headlines this offseason. Swapping out Duncan Robinson for Simone Fontecchio is probably a step backward. Kasparas Jakučionis felt like a steal the moment he landed in Miami as the No. 20 pick, but summer league showed there's plenty of work ahead. The bargain-priced deal for Norman Powell was the offseason's smartest move that no one's talking about.
There wasn't a lot of attention-grabbing stuff, and for a team that just went 37-45 last season, you can understand why external expectations are down. Understanding isn't the same as agreeing, though.
The Heat may not have a superstar—unless you count best-in-the-business coach Erik Spoelstra—but Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo are legitimate stars. Andrew Wiggins has been an All-Star and a key component for a champion. Norman Powell had an All-Star argument last season. Kel'el Ware could be on the cusp of a breakout. Nikola Jović is a fascinating wild card.
Frankly, Miami has too many competent-or-better players to mention all of them. Why can't that all add up to a club capable of competing in this Eastern Conference? You know the one without Damian Lillard and with Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton sidelined indefinitely by their respective Achilles injuries?
Other than the New York Knicks, Cleveland Cavaliers, and Orlando Magic—assuming Desmond Bane fits as well in practice as he does on paper—who would even confidently feel they're decidedly better than the Heat? The Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers are without their cornerstones. The Milwaukee Bucks might be a one-man army. The Philadelphia 76ers are a walking red flag. The Detroit Pistons and Atlanta Hawks are promising, but unproven.
The Heat should have nothing to fear here. They should also sense that there isn't an obstacle great enough to think they shouldn't finish worse than sixth, and couldn't finish among the top four.
The defense is perpetually stingy, and the offense has ample room to grow based on player development and the savvy additions to the roster. The coaching will be great. The depth should be among the league's best. And the front office could always decide to utilize its flexibility earlier than expected if the right star happens to shake loose.
Miami probably doesn't have a 50-win contender on its hands, but a victory count in the mid-to-upper 40s and a top-six seed in hand shouldn't merely be hopes. Those have to be the expectations for this Heat team.