Heat's Giannis pursuit is more complicated than it seems

Here are 34 scattered thoughts on the Heat's chances of landing Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Indiana Pacers v Milwaukee Bucks - Game Three
Indiana Pacers v Milwaukee Bucks - Game Three | John Fisher/GettyImages

For the first time, Giannis Antetokounmpo is open-minded about leaving the Milwaukee Bucks in order to chase winning a championship elsewhere, according to ESPN’s Shams Charania

Antetokounmpo has made no firm decisions about requesting a trade from the Bucks, but is expected to sit down with Bucks management this offseason and is open to exploring whether the best thing for his career would be to play elsewhere.

If the Bucks get to the point of listening to trade calls for Antetokounmpo, he would be the biggest superstar to switch teams since LeBron James in 2014. Perennial MVP candidates in their prime just don’t get moved (unless they play for Dallas) and every team – including the Miami Heat – would have to have a meeting about how they could acquire him.

While Giannis to Miami remains a longshot, here are 34 (for Antetokounmpo’s jersey number) scattered thoughts on what this means for the Heat.

  1. For the Heat to have any chance at trading for Giannis, they need him to call his shot and let the league know he wants to play in Miami.
  2. The Heat can offer stability, a proven track record of building around stars and playing for one of the league’s top coaches, in addition to an international, warm-weather lifestyle. 
  3. Every star player who has made his way to Miami has either competed for or won titles. Shaquille O’Neal, LeBron James, Chris Bosh, Jimmy Butler. All of them have played in the Finals while wearing a Heat uniform. 
  4. As Pat Riley said in last week’s press conference, “In 30 years, we’ve always found a way to [retool and contend]. We have a great front office, make decisions together. I’m going to live on my track record.”
  5. After Giannis saw his championship team crumble around him in Milwaukee, can the Heat sell him on a vision in Miami?
  6. That would likely require the Heat retaining either Bam Adebayo or Tyler Herro in a potential trade package. 
  7. Adebayo is the multi-time All-Star and superior player – a player stars want to play with because of his ability to do the hard things. 
  8. Herro is arguably the better basketball fit thanks to his spacing and perimeter shot-making ability. 
  9. The Heat can also trade up to three first-round picks and include players like Andrew Wiggins, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Nikola Jovic and Kel’el Ware in a deal.
  10. Duncan Robinson could also provide some needed salary cap and luxury tax relief for Milwaukee in a deal.
  11. But whatever trade package the Heat concoct, it could fall short of the best offers that teams like Houston, Brooklyn, Oklahoma City and San Antonio could put together. All three of those teams are armed with the sort of draft picks and/or young players needed to jumpstart a rebuild.
  12. For example, Houston can offer Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson, Oklahoma City can offer Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams, and San Antonio could offer Stephon Castle.
  13. The Heat don’t have a young player with that kind of upside, but they’d have to make any and all of them available.
  14. If Oklahoma City loses in the second round for the second straight year, maybe they have this conversation. 
  15. What happens if Cleveland loses to the Pacers in the second round? Are they up for big changes? Would they put someone like Evan Mobley on the table to pair Giannis with Donovan Mitchell?
  16. Giannis can be a free agent in 2027. He has some leverage in this situation, but not as much as someone like Kevin Durant, who can be a free agent in 2026 and tell prospective teams that he won’t re-sign after the season. With Giannis, teams are guaranteed at least two full seasons of a top-three player in the league if they can meet Milwaukee’s demands. That could be enough to risk Giannis walking away in two years.
  17. How much do the Bucks care about helping Giannis get to where he wants to go, if he decides to request a trade? How long is the list of preferred destinations, and where does Miami rank on that potential list?
  18. According to Amico Hoops, Giannis is reportedly “intrigued” by the idea of playing in a state with no income tax. So, Texas, Florida and Tennessee.
  19. What if the Grizzlies put Ja Morant on the table?
  20. Basketball people agree that Houston is the most logical landing spot because of their defense, regular-season success and collection of assets. But does Giannis see it that way? Who is the player on that roster that Giannis feels compelled to uproot his career to play with? Is Ime Udoka enough of a draw?
  21. It’s easier to see the case for OKC (playing with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) and San Antonio (Victor Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox), but we don’t know if those teams would seriously be involved. An all-in move for Giannis isn’t exactly in their character. But a player like Giannis being available can make front offices do uncharacteristic things. They are also smaller markets.
  22. Los Angeles and Dallas are in similar spots to Miami. Bigger markets that have some stuff, but not a ton, to make offers for Giannis. Do the Bucks prefer a package built around Austin Reaves or Anthony Davis over something built around Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro?
  23. Herro is from the Milwaukee area. 
  24. Adebayo and Antetokounmpo share an agent, Alex Saratsis of Octagon Athlete Representation.
  25. Keep an eye on Monday night’s lottery. A team vaulting into a top-four pick could give them another big asset to dangle in a Giannis deal.
  26. By the way, yes, you are willing to include all three of Miami’s future first-round picks for Giannis. There’s no debate. 
  27. Here’s how many games Giannis has won the last seven seasons: 60, 56, 46 (COVID-shortened season on a 53-win pace), 51, 58, 49 and 48. Some of those teams were championship material, others weren’t. Either way, having Antetokounmpo on your roster virtually guarantees a shot at winning 50 games.
  28. The Heat have won 50 games just once since 2014.
  29.  More from Riley at last week’s presser: “The regular season means a lot to me and means a tremendous amount to the fans. We’ve got to elevate ourselves out of the play-in.” … Getting Gianis, and therefore up to 50 wins, will do that!
  30. Because so many teams are better positioned for a blockbuster trade, the Heat landing Giannis is still a longshot.
  31. Maybe the biggest impact a Giannis trade has on Miami is that it removes competition for Kevin Durant.
  32.  If teams like Houston, Oklahoma City or San Antonio are more engaged with the Bucks, that means the Heat could enter more limited negotiations with the Suns for Durant.
  33. There’s a favorable scenario in which Giannis moves to the Western Conference and the Heat acquire Durant. That would remove a formidable rival from the conference while elevating the Heat in the East’s hierarchy. 
  34. The Heat will be engaged in trade talks for star players. This doesn’t mean they will get one, but early signs indicate multiple could be on the move this summer.

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