Heat have one final opportunity to finish the season on a high note

The Miami Heat have just one regular-season game remaining in the 2025-26 campaign, and it happens to come against the hottest team in the league over the past two months, the Atlanta Hawks. 

The Hawks have surged up the Eastern Conference standings right around the time Trae Young was traded to the Washington Wizards in exchange for CJ McCollum and Corey Kispert. The Hawks have done nothing but win in the second half of the season, while the Heat have had a different story.

Regardless of that story, the Heat are here today as a play-in team, but with a chance to secure home-court advantage if things go their way elsewhere. Miami can only focus on Atlanta, though, Sunday night at home to close out the season, and given their season record against the Hawks, there is cause for optimism.

Miami Heat's 2-1 season series record against the Atlanta Hawks gives some hope for the play-in

For two reasons, the Heat could have the advantage in their fourth meetup with the Hawks. First, Hawks head coach Quin Snyder may rest his starters: Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Onyeka Okongwu, and McCollum. The Heat, on the other hand, will not be resting anyone. 

Second, in the three games Miami has faced Atlanta this season, Miami has bested the Hawks twice: 126-111 on December 3rd and 128-97 on February 20th. The Hawks won the middle game, 127-115, on February 3rd. 

Considering that Erik Spoelstra will not rest his starters given the implications for their play-in seeding, the Heat enter this game against the Hawks as the favorites. That said, if Atlanta chooses to play their starters, those odds could shift quickly, and not in Miami's favor. 

No matter who Atlanta dresses, Miami will need a full-spirited effort from their main guys, starting with Andrew Wiggins, Tyler Herro, and Adebayo. As for their role players, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Pelle Larsson, and Simone Fontecchio, for instance, all had stellar games against the Wizards on Friday night, each leading the Heat in scoring. 

If all three, or at least two, can show up like that again and support the Heat's starters, Miami has a real shot at ending their season on a two-game winning streak. If momentum means anything, they'll carry some of it into the play-in, where they'll face the Charlotte Hornets. 

Miami expects its full team to be available for the Hawks, with the main exception being Norman Powell (groin), who could miss a second game after sitting out against the Wizards. Tyler Herro, absent from that game, is not listed on Miami's injury report. This is good news for the Heat, since they'll need contributions from everyone, especially if the Hawks play their starters.