Heat have painfully obvious fate after Tyler Herro's injury

The Heat should tank this season.
Indiana Pacers v Miami Heat
Indiana Pacers v Miami Heat | Brennan Asplen/GettyImages

The Miami Heat have a great opportunity available to them if they want. With Tyler Herro set to miss the first month of the season, they have a great chance to "tank" this year in an attempt to get an elite player from the 2026 NBA Draft. The Heat own their pick in 2026, and could use this season to land a game-changing lottery talent.

And honestly, the path to tanking wouldn't be that difficult for the Heat. Without Herro, the Heat are already going to struggle. All they would have to do is prioritize their young development deep into the season. That means taking the training wheels off of the likes of Kasparas Jakucionis and Pelle Larsson right away.

But we all know that's not how the Heat operate. Looking at their recent history, it's hard to pinpoint a year in which the Heat fully "tanked." There's no question, though, that the injury to Herro will give them that opportunity.

The argument against it could be difficult in the event that the Heat get off to a rough start. Can you imagine if Miami jumps out to a 4-11 or 5-10 start without Herro in the lineup? At that point, the writing may already be on the wall for the Heat.

Why the Heat should strongly consider "tanking"

Even if the Heat "survive" without Herro for the first month of the season, it's hard to imagine how the Heat are going to factor much in the Eastern Conference hierarchy this season.

Looking at the landscape of the East, there are roughly eight teams that should be better than the Heat. Even if that doesn't pan out that way, the Heat are, at best, going to be in the running for a sixth seed.

And that's if things fall almost perfectly for the Heat this season.

I don't think there is much pushback against the idea that Miami would be better served by soft "tanking" this season. Not only would it help them get a better draft pick, but it would also give their young core a better chance to take a bigger step in their development this season.

At least to start out the year, that's not going to be the expectation for the team. Maybe their outlook changes by mid-season, and this is something that is revisited, but, for now, there will be no tanking for the Heat.

Still, especially after the injury to Herro, I'd have to believe that it probably should be a greater possibility than most seem to be willing to admit.