The Miami Heat are just 13-17 with Tyler Herro in the lineup this season, and the team was just 17-20 with Herro as the lead man last season, post-Jimmy Butler. Together, that means the Heat, over the past two seasons, are just 30-37 with Herro as their top offensive option.
This mounting evidence and irrefutable revelation make it pretty obvious that the Heat have no choice but to trade Herro this summer, rather than giving him a big contract extension that he's likely going to be asking for.
The Heat's big Tyler Herro decision
Theoretically speaking, there are a few different paths that the Miami Heat could take with Herro this offseason. Admittedly, none of them seems overwhelmingly appealing.
They could sign him to an early extension, before he can hit free agency after the 2026-27 NBA season. They could let him ride out his current deal and let him set his own market in 2027. Or, and what I'd describe as the most likely option, they could trade him before he becomes a lame-duck free agent.
If Herro is going to demand $35-plus million per year on his extension, I can't see how the Heat can justify such a move. With all due respect, Miami has been a mitigated disaster with Herro as the No. 1 option, and it's going to be incredibly difficult to add a superstar talent after a big Herro extension (especially considering Bam Adebayo's max extension kicks into turbo next season).
Tyler Herro is not a fit on the Heat anymore
The honest truth is that while Herro is a very good offensive player, probably the best on the current roster, he doesn’t make the kind of overall impact expected from someone earning his salary.
As much as Miami wants to make it work, it just hasn't with Herro in a primary offensive role.
Over the years, Herro was most effective for the Heat as a third or fourth option. It's hard to envision how the Heat would be able to get Herro back into that type of role without him taking a huge pay cut. And we all know that's unlikely to happen.
Nor should it.
Herro should get every penny he can. At this point in his career, taking a pay cut is probably one of the last things on his mind. Coming off an All-Star season, how can you blame him? Why would he take a less-than-market-value deal in the middle of his prime?
That's why all roads likely lead to an eventual divorce between the Heat and Herro, with the most likely outcome being a trade this offseason.
With the way this Heat front office has operated of late, everyone knows that's far from a certainty. But when looking at the landscape of the league and where the Heat stand, Miami doesn't have any other choice but to trade Herro at this point.
If Miami wants to shake up its roster this offseason, and all signs seem to point to that, it will almost certainly begin with a trade of Herro. We're at the point where it would be a huge surprise if that didn't happen.
With the proper clarity, the Heat has no excuse to ignore it.