As the Miami Heat search the trade market for a suitable deal for Jimmy Butler, one thing they can’t do is take a dramatic step back.
That’s because making the playoffs is imperative for the Heat. Not making the playoffs this season could result in becoming dangerously vulnerable to losing valuable picks over the next few years.
After Monday night’s loss in Sacramento, the Heat dropped to a record of 17-17 and ninth in the Eastern Conference. With the Cleveland Cavaliers, Boston Celtics, New York Knicks and Orlando Magic comfortable in playoff position, two games separate six teams jostling for the final four playoff spots: The Milwaukee Bucks, Indiana Pacers, Detroit Pistons, Atlanta Hawks, Heat and Chicago Bulls.
Avoiding the play-in, as always, is a priority for the Heat as to not risk falling into the draft lottery.
The Heat will give up a first-round pick in 2025 if they make the playoffs. If not, they would owe unprotected picks in 2026 and 2028.
The Heat owe a lottery-protected first in 2025 to the Oklahoma City Thunder and would keep the pick if they miss the playoffs. But doing so would be potentially disastrous because it would kick the pick out to 2026, when it would be unprotected (meaning it could be conveyed for any pick between 1-30).
The Heat would prefer to convey a middle-to-late first this summer as opposed to opening themselves up to part with a potential lottery pick as they begin to retool in a post-Butler era.
Adding to Miami’s motivation to make the playoffs this season is the fact that missing the postseason and sending a fully unprotected pick to Oklahoma City in 2026 would mean the Charlotte Hornets would get the Heat’s unprotected pick in 2028, as opposed to a lottery-protected pick in 2027. The NBA’s Stepien Rule prohibits teams from trading first-round picks in consecutive seasons.
Here’s how Oklahoma City and Charlotte acquired these picks:
- The Heat owed a 2023 first-round pick with draft protections that ran until 2026 to the Clippers in a multi-team deal to land Butler. The Thunder acquired that pick from the Clippers in the 2019 deal that sent Paul George to Los Angeles.
- Before the 2022 trade deadline, the Heat and Thunder agreed to amend the protections to turn the 2023 first into a protected 2025 first, which would turn into an unprotected 2026 first if it did not convey. (This deal helped the Heat draft Jaime Jaquez Jr. in the 2023 draft.)
- The Heat traded a 2027 top-14 protected first to Charlotte for Terry Rozier last January. That pick becomes unprotected in 2028 if it does not convey.
TL;DR: Make the playoffs, the Heat part with a late mid-to-late first round pick in 2025 and maintain protections over their 2027 pick owed to Charlotte. Miss the playoffs, and the Heat owe unprotected picks in 2026 and 2028, leaving themselves extremely vulnerable to losing potential top picks in the post-Butler retool.
This is why the Heat are seeking helpful players back in any Butler trade. Even if the Heat cannot land a star, adding role players to bolster their lineups around Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro is important. At the same time, the Heat don’t want to take on longterm, guaranteed salary in order to preserve their cap flexibility.
Striking a deal that checks those boxes could be difficult between now and the Feb. 6 trade deadline.
The Heat have also left the door open to Butler returning to the team. The Heat had hoped at the beginning of the season that Butler could help them make the playoffs and then revisit his future in the summer. Butler has not been as patient and was suspended for seven games following his trade request last Thursday night.
Butler returning to the team and playing well after his suspension would help the Heat make a playoff push, but Butler going through the motions like he did in his final two games before being suspended does not help Miami’s case.