Over the last couple of days, it's become clear that Kevin Durant is very much a real possibility for the Miami Heat. In fact, I'd take it a step further. I'd suggest that the path to a KD trade this offseason is as clear as it's ever been. However, that doesn't make it any less of a risk. For what it's likely going to cost the Heat to acquire KD, there's a very real chance that this all ends in disaster for the Heat.
But that doesn't mean the juice isn't worth the squeeze. At least for now, the Heat seems to believe it is. If KD is every much the unicorn that LeBron James is and has proven to be in his later years, the Heat should absolutely be willing to take the huge risk. However, if he's not, this entire trade could prove to be catastrophic.
It's been speculated by ESPN that Miami could land KD via a three-team trade. In that crafted deal, the Heat would essentially give up Andrew Wiggins, Nikola Jovic, Duncan Robinson, Keshad Johnson, the 20th overall pick in this year's NBA Draft, a 2030 first-round pick, a 2026 second-round pick, and two first-round pick swaps (2029, 2031).
Trading for KD will be costly
To be perfectly honest, I'm not sure if that would be enough to pull off a trade. If I had to guess, especially with the strong trade market that there appears to be for KD, I'd imagine the Heat would probably have to throw in another first-round pick or Kel'el Ware to finalize the deal.
At that point, the Heat would be 100 percent all-in on KD. If Miami didn't want to have to bet on what other teams may be offering, a trade for KD is going to cost Wiggins, more salary fillers, two of their young players, and two first-round picks. Miami could throw in second-round picks and pick swaps, but those don't hold nearly as much substance in the grand scheme of things.
If the Heat were to make such a gamble on KD, they'd have to be confident this is a move that would change the course of the franchise. And it just might.
The KD trade could save the franchise
If the addition of KD leads the Heat to emerge as a real threat to win a championship this upcoming season, that'd be a huge win for the franchise. In many ways, the argument could be made that KD could go a long way in saving this franchise from NBA purgatory.
Without a star addition this offseason, it's hard to envision how the Heat is going to be substantially better in the near future without tearing it down this summer. Every Heat fan knows that's not how Pat Riley operates, so missing out on a star acquisition this offseason likely means mediocrity for at least another year.
Missing out on KD this summer also probably means the Heat locking themselves into a foreseeable future with Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo as their top options. Herro and Bam aren't bad players, but they're also not lead superstars. With no KD, Herro and Bam will continue to be thrown into roles that are not ideal for their respective games.
The KD trade could also set the Heat back a half-decade
At the same time, if the Heat makes a move for KD and it fails miserably, this is the type of gamble that could end up setting the franchise back a half-decade (at least). The draft capital and young players would be missed and would not be easily replaced.
If the KD trade blows up in their face, it would take many years for the Heat to climb out of that hole. There is a devastating risk that comes with trading for KD. At this point, Miami should be willing to roll the dice. It seems like the front office agrees.