The 2025-26 NBA schedule is out, and while it's no surprise who the Miami Heat are playing this upcoming season, it's the structure of their schedule that has raised some eyebrows.
The Heat will have a massive opportunity to go on a run right before the All-Star break. But in order to have a soft part of the schedule, Miami has to have a brutal part somewhere else during the season.
And the first 15 games for Miami are about as brutal as they come.
Miami will get tested right out of the gate
If Miami was hoping to ease into the season as its young core of talent tries to gel together, it did not get its wish.
The first five games for the Heat aren't the worst:
- Heat @ Magic
- Heat @ Grizzles
- Heat vs Knicks
- Heat vs Hornets
- Heat @ Spurs
It's not unfair to think Miami could go 3-2 to open the season, but they could easilt be 1-4 if they aren't careful.
It's the 10 games that follow that could break the Heat's season before they even blink:
- Heat @ Lakers
- Heat @ Clippers
- Heat @ Nuggets
- Heat vs Hornets
- Heat vs Trail Blazers
- Heat vs Cavaliers
- Heat vs Cavaliers
- Heat @ Knicks
- Heat vs Knicks
- Heat vs Warriors
How many games does one expect Miami to be favored during that stretch?
Two?
If Miami isn't careful, they could easily start the 2025-26 campaign 5-10 or worse and dig themselves a massive hole right out of the gate.
Just keep swimming
The goal for Miami during the first 15 games needs to be six wins at a minimum. Starting 6-9 isn't ideal, and the fact that we are entertaining this conversation is emblematic of how far the Heat have fallen.
But if the Heat can just keep its head above water through December, the schedule lightens up towards the back end of January, where there will be an opportunity to go on a 10-2 run.
The endgame goal for Miami in 2025-26 is to get this group to take any kind of step forward, and surviving that initial gauntlet will be a massive test right away.