Remember the seemingly surefire breakout for Nikola Jovic? You know, the one that looked like it might define the 2025-26 NBA season at large for the Miami Heat?
Well, it hasn't happened. What's worse is there have been zero indications it'll come any time soon. He is scoring and distributing less than last season while shooting worse than he has since his rookie year. He has a single three-pointer (on seven attempts) to show for his last three trips to the hardwood combined.
And yet, it still feels like he could find his way out of this. Actually, it seems like the breakout should still be on schedule, since Miami's new offense, which prioritizes pace and space, looks like a perfect fit for his skillset. And maybe it could still be with a shift in his approach.
More touches and playmaking chances could be what brings out Jovic's best.
The best-case-scenario form of Jovic might be borderline unstoppable in this offense. He's a skilled 6'10" forward who can dribble, shoot, and distribute. Let him cook against defenses that aren't fully set, and he just might serve up some Michelin star-rated delicacies.
The problem is his menu looks way too limited at the moment. Rather than serving as an all-purpose jumbo forward, he's basically operating as a shooting specialist. He isn't getting (or giving himself) enough chances to flash the ball skills that played such a big part in that breakout buzz.
His 17.4 percent usage rate is the second-lowest of his career and the fourth-smallest among Miami's rotation regulars, per Basketball-Reference. His average touch lasts only 2.17 seconds, which is the fourth-fewest on the entire roster, per NBA.com. The only players averaging less time on the ball are Pelle Larsson, Simone Fontecchio, and Kel'el Ware. The first two are quick-to-fire shooters, and the latter is a rim-running play-finisher.
Jovic needs to be more involved. If he isn't getting chances to create, then he doesn't have an opportunity to impact this team the best way he could. Moreover, if he isn't special on offense—and 8.7 points on 40.4/34.6/77.8 shooting clearly isn't reaching that threshold—then his defensive limitations become a whole lot harder to stomach.
It feels like this is less about his light bulb clicking and more about not even letting him try to flip the switch. There is too much settling in his offensive menu so far and not enough downhill chances to attack or drive and kick.
And, again, you'd think this offensive system would be the perfect showcase for those exact abilities.
Hopefully, they still will be, and all of those preseason calls for his emergence will prove prescient. Because if that doesn't happen, it becomes a whole lot harder to envision the Heat having better than a league-average offense.