The NBA seems motivated to shake up the NBA Draft Lottery (and its process). And with the rumored proposals, it's becoming quite clear that the Miami Heat's anti-tanking hardline is likely to be fully vindicated or, at the very least, to some extent.
The hope of these new proposals is to end serial tanking across the league, something that the Heat have been completely in lockstep with. In fact, there's an argument to be made that there may not be a team in the league that is more opposed to tanking than the Heat.
Cracking down on tanking has quickly become one of the biggest priorities for the league over the past couple of seasons. And while it may not be 100 percent eradicated until the lottery is completely abolished, these new rules could help, at the very least, make teams second-guess themselves before going down this path.
The Heat would embrace these new chances to the lottery
First reported by ESPN's Shams Charania, here are the proposals that the NBA is expected to vote on in May:
1. 18 teams in draft lottery (seeds 7-15 in each conference) – flattened odds, with bottom 10 teams having an 8% chance, the remaining 20% odds distributed in decreasing order for 11 through 18, and and a lottery drawing for all 18 picks.
2) 22 teams in lottery using 2-year record (seeds 7-15, plus the four playoff first round exits in both conferences). Lottery teams would reach a minimum win total floor in each season, such as 25 wins. If a team falls short of the floor, it gets slotted to meet the floor. Top 4 drawn as part of lottery, as is currently.
3) 18 teams in a "5 by 5" lottery – bottom 5 teams have equal odds for the top pick, with lottery formed for picks 1-5. Bottom 5 teams have a floor at 10; those that fall out of top 5 get sorted in a separate drawing.
While it may be a bit difficult for the average fan to understand what these proposals would mean, which is a problem in itself, these types of tweaks could spark real change. The Heat, who have been against tanking since it was first adopted as a building tactic, would be completely on board.
Short of getting rid of the lottery system entirely, this is the next best thing for the Heat.
Changes to the lottery could completely change the NBA's future
The proposals aside, even the simple fact that the NBA has realized that tanking is an issue is a good sign for a Heat foundational philosophy (of not tanking) that has come into question over the last couple of seasons.
Again, without knowing the full scope of what proposal will eventually pass or what tweaks that may be included in it, it's hard to pinpoint how exactly the Heat (or any non-tanking team) will benefit. But the league is essentially trying to keep teams from going down that path.
And if they are indeed successful in pulling that off, it would help even the playing field for a team like the Heat in every draft from here on out. In other words, the Heat won't necessarily be punished for trying to win to the extent that they are right now.
For example, the Heat have no shot to win the lottery if they end up making the playoffs, even via the Play-In Tournament. However, in the future, there's a chance that may no longer be the case.
The Heat aside, if the league can create a way where teams won't be penalized in the lottery for trying to win, it could completely alter the late-season postseason races near the bottom of each conference.
The NBA is looking for change, and the lottery is at the center of its focus. In the process, the Heat could end up being proven right for their consistent stance against tanking.