Extension talks with All-Star guard Tyler Herro were never going to be easy for the Miami Heat. Maybe that's where they kinda, sorta, not really happening.
The two sides are talking, but "there haven't been substantive talks to this point," per ESPN's Brian Windhorst, who added that an extension "doesn't appear to be in the offering." While the reporter opined that "Herro is the player the Heat should probably be most interested in extending," Miami's front office is absolutely making the right call here.
Maybe this leads to some harsh feelings on Herro's side. Perhaps it even pushes his price tag higher if he has the kind of season he thinks he can. That's fine. Those might be risks, but committing a potential three-year, $150 million deal to a player before knowing whether he's actually worth it would do considerably more damage.
Even after his All-Star selection, Herro is still proving his worth.
If Herro and his representatives aren't seeking the most money they can get from Miami, they have to be asking for something really close to it. And that's not some egregious request.
He is 25 years old, coming off of his first All-Star season, and by far the best offensive player on a team that perpetually struggles on that end. He might consider himself irreplaceable on this roster, and with its current makeup, he might be right.
If I'm the Heat, though, I'm pumping the brakes on a pay rate anywhere near that price. There are a million different questions about Herro, not the least of which is how he'll look upon his return from recent ankle surgery. That alone could give Miami pause about paying him right now.
The concerns run well beyond that, though.
While last season saw his emergence as an All-Star, it looks a bit like a statistical anomaly when weighed against his career performances. He simultaneously increased both his volume (23.9 points, 5.5 assists, and 3.3 three-pointers) and his efficiency (47.2/37.5/87.8). That's a tricky balancing act to maintain.
So, there are some sustainability questions at play, particularly since he wasn't nearly as effective in the playoffs (17.8 points on 41.5/31/80 shooting with 2.8 assists against 2.3 turnovers).
And then there's the matter of whether his numbers actually matter in a winning context. He was the Heat's best player last season, sure, but it's not like he faced the stiffest competition on a 45-loss team that needed two wins (including) an overtime triumph just to escape the play-in tournament—and then get swiftly swept out of the first round.
Can he lead a winning roster? That's impossible to say, but it's objectively true that he hasn't yet. Given his glaring deficiencies on the defensive end, skepticism is both fair and warranted.
Miami's front office is surely considering all of the above and then seemingly concluding that it's just too early to commit that kind of coin to Herro. As it should be. The risks of not paying him now—remember, these talks can always be revisited after the season—simply pale in comparison to those tied to a potentially enormous overpay. The Heat are doing the right thing.