The Terry Rozier trade is the transaction that keeps on giving...headaches to the Miami Heat. There’s no escaping it—not even when things are going well, as they have been this offseason.
And just in case the Heat forgot, a recent ranking of traded away first-round draft picks is here to remind them of their blunder all over again.
Heat traded away one of the most valuable first-rounders out there
Back in January 2024, Miami flipped Kyle Lowry’s expiring contract and a 2027 first-round pick with top-14 protection to the Charlotte Hornets in exchange for Rozier. Here’s the kicker: If that selection does not convey in 2027, it becomes completely unprotected in 2028.
Sam Quinn of CBS Sports recently ranked 63 first-round picks owed to other teams according to their current value, as either an actual selection or a potential trade chip. The Heat’s 2027 selection checks in at No. 26.
Finishing just inside the top half of the pecking order is far from cataclysmic. It also undersells the upside of the pick. Keeping it outside the top 20, frankly, requires making the assumption that Miami will crack the playoffs in 2026-27, and convey the first-rounder to Charlotte. That is galaxies from a guarantee.
Uncertainty abounds in Miami
Despite having a very good offseason, the Heat remain in a transition phase. They are clearly prioritizing cap and asset flexibility in order to pursue Giannis Antetokounmpo or other stars. That’s fine and dandy—if they’re assured to get Giannis, or someone else. They aren’t. And they know this all too well.
Meanwhile, the future of Tyler Herro is basically billowing in the wind. He will be extension-eligible this October, and it seems unlikely he will get a deal, largely because it would eat into that flexibility we just referenced. Norman Powell will also be a free agent next summer. He is not a lock to return if the Heat let him hit the open market.
Uncertainty permeates every corner of the Heat’s operations. They do not know what they have in Pelle Larsson, Kel’el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Nikola Jovic, Keshad Johnson, Kasparas Jokicionis, and so on. They are clearly trying to remain competitive, and just might succeed. But the framework of their roster is transient—built to be reshuffled, if not remade, each year.
Hindsight is 20/20, but…
Now, in Miami’s defense, Rozier was having a career year at the time of his acquisition. Even so, the move was viewed as shortsighted in the moment—a transaction aimed at deepening the rotation, but also one that over-indexed on cutting immediate payroll. Many initially preferred to see the Heat shed salary another way, and to let Lowry’s expiring deal come off the books.
Fast forward to right now, and the trade looks even worse. Rozier is coming off a season during which he barely looked like an NBA player, and entering the final year of his deal, he may wind up getting paid $26.6 million to ride the bench behind a quietly deep rotation.
Failing a big-time acquisition over the next year, Miami has a real chance of finishing 2026-27 as a lottery team. And if it does, the pressure is on to make a mega leap in 2027-28. Otherwise, it’ll be shipping out a lottery pick to complete a trade that never came close to panning out—and that it never should have made.