There’s nothing better than some absolutely ridiculous preseason predictions. I promise I’m not that delusional, but it's always fun. Let’s get into five bold predictions for Giannis Antetokounmpo's first year with the Miami Heat.
Bold Prediction No. 1: The Miami Heat are a top 4 seed and get home-court advantage
The only reason why I even consider this bold is that the Heat tend to not care about the regular season in the Jimmy Butler era. This, of course, resulted in a play-in-bound 8-seeded Heat going all the way to the NBA Finals back in 2023.
Still, I think this is a different era. Giannis doesn’t have the tendency to just not care in the regular season like Jimmy occasionally did. His switch is always on, and that, mixed with a roster that is probably better than the 2023 Finals team, should comfortably lead this team to a top-4 seed. I think Giannis can win a lot of regular-season games with a competent coach and roster.
Bold Prediction No. 2: The Heat will have two award winners
There’s a bunch of natural candidates here. I would consider the two most likely to be Tim Hardaway Jr. for Sixth Man of the Year (finalist last year) and a Most Improved Player winner between Pelle Larsson and Nikola Jovic.
Other possibilities include Giannis for MVP or Clutch Player of the Year (would likely need some stars to miss significant time) and Bam Adebayo for DPOY (same story). Maybe Erik Spolestra finally gets a much-deserved Coach of the Year award.
Bold Prediction No. 3: The Miami Heat trade for a star to complete a Big 3
I’m aware of Pat Riley’s history of midseason trades (or lack thereof). But Pat’s getting old. Maybe he thinks this is the year.
The most likely addition as of right now would probably be Kyrie Irving. He’s not too difficult to match contract-wise and asset-wise, and he holds a player option next season before his contract ends.
I’d expect that another star becomes available that nobody is expecting. If they request the Heat, no telling what comes next. The keys are still under the mat for LeBron James (I’m kidding. Or am I?).
Bold Prediction No. 4: The Miami Heat will be top-5 in 3-point percentage and total makes
The biggest media narrative around this team is that there’s no spacing. Yet no analysts have thought about how the Heat were elite at 3-point shooting with two non-shooters in Jimmy and Bam (and Bam shoots more 3s now than Jimmy did).
The Heat were No. 1 in 3-point percentage in 2021-22, and Bam and Jimmy combined for a little over two 3s a game at a 23% clip. And they were 6th in 3-point makes.
This time around, Bam will get more open 3s and make them at a higher clip. Giannis can occasionally add a 3 or two (he actually shot 33% on 1.3 attempts per game last year). And the Heat have multiple high-quality volume shooters in Klay Thompson, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Andrew Wiggins.
Bold Prediction No. 5: Klay Thompson breaks the Heat single-season 3-point makes record
The current record is 270 by Duncan Robinson. While Klay has only beaten this twice, the last time he did it was in the 2022-23 season (his career high). Steph Curry only played 56 games, opening Klay up to have more attempts.
He could have a similar opportunity on the Heat, who notoriously struggle to stay healthy in the regular season. Plus, he will have the least amount of defensive burden he’s ever had.
But even as a majority bench player last year, he made 202 3s in 69 games. With the opportunity to play winning basketball, I think he’s motivated enough to break the record.
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