The Miami Heat are 0-3 against the Chicago Bulls this season. It’s a bad matchup for them, but it’s the one they’ll have to overcome to make the playoffs.
The Heat face the Bulls in Chicago on Wednesday as part of the play-in tournament. The game is at 7:30 pm ET and will be televised on ESPN. It will be exactly a week between their last regular-season matchup and this win-or-go-home 9-10 play-in game.
If the Heat lose, their season is over. Win, and they’ll face either the Hawks or Magic on the road, depending on who loses the 7-8 game on Tuesday night. The winner of that game on Friday night will advance as the No. 8 seed in the playoffs.
“We know that it’s not going to be easy,” Erik Spoelstra said.
Let’s take a look at the key factors in Miami’s most important game of the season.
Key battleground: Pace
The biggest reason for Miami’s struggles against Chicago is pace. The Heat played at the league’s fourth-slowest pace this season, while the Bulls were the league’s second-fastest, averaging more than six possessions per 48 minutes.
The three regular-season games between the Heat and Bulls were played at a pace of 103.5 possessions per 48 minutes – virtually equal to Chicago’s regular-season pace. They set the terms of engagement, and the Heat struggled to keep up. The Bulls outscored the Heat 55-36 in fastbreak points this season.
Coaches and players point to the relief points in transition as the No. 1 thing that needs to be cleaned up on Wednesday.
“Taking away transition points,” Bam Adebayo said. “That’s the biggest thing. From that, make it a half-court game and then we play in the mud.”
When the Heat are on offense
Tyler Herro scored 30 points on 50% shooting in Chicago last week, but the Bulls are probably happy with his shot chart. Herro was 2 for 7 on 3s and didn’t take a single shot in the restricted area. This was an old-school Herro performance that mostly took place in the mid-range.
That’s fine – even needed – when nothing else is going in for the Heat. But it’ll be tough to beat the Bulls if Herro has the same shot diet. The Heat need to find a way to generate more shots at the rim, especially against an undersized Bulls lineup. The Heat took just eight shots in the restricted area last week.
When Miami was on offense, Chicago built a wall around the rim. The Bulls are happy to allow a decent amount of 3s as long as they take away the easy ones. Every time a Heat player drove, multiple Bulls shuffled into the paint to block his path.
Would-be layups turn into push shots and floaters. Shots that go in at a 60% clip start sinking at a 45% clip. That’s how you muck up a team’s offensive rating.
How do the Heat counter? Make the outside 3s! They are shooting 33% on 3s over the last two matchups (read: Since the Jimmy Butler trade). If Herro, Duncan Robinson, Haywood Highsmith and Alec Burks make their 3s, then Chicago’s defenders can’t be so fast to ditch them on the perimeter.
The other option could be to run more stuff behind Chicago’s defense. Backdoor cuts on the baseline could be open when Nikola Vucevic steps up. It would be nice to have Pelle Larsson in this one, but he’ll likely miss it with an ankle injury.
Getting to the line more (17 free-throw attempts last week) will help slow the game down.
When the Heat are on defense
Two words: Get back! Off makes. Off misses. Heck, run during timeouts. The Bulls scored at a ho-hum rate of 104.2 points per 100 possessions in the halfcourt in last week’s meeting. The Heat will take that. What they can’t give up are 24 fastbreak points.
Miami has to be alert. So much of this is focus and short-term memory. When a Bull has the ball in his hands, his direction is to push. Watch here as Matas Buzelis grabs the loose ball rebound and sprints down the court. Meanwhile, Alec Burks and Andrew Wiggins are caught ball-watching and Tyler Herro is jogging backward (!) as Buzelis gets the easy layup on the other end.
“It’s a synapse that we have to have on Wednesday,” Spoelstra said, “to get on to the next possession and have that mental toughness to do that for 48 minutes every single possession, whether it’s a make or a miss.”
Chicago’s X-factor: Josh Giddey’s 3-point shooting
Giddey torched the Heat this season. He averaged 26 points on 58.3% shooting, 10.3 rebounds and 10 assists over the three games. Wiggins, Highsmith and Davion Mitchell all tried but could not slow him down last week.
Slowing the Bulls down will help. Giddey does most of his damage in the open court, but he’s more limited in a half-court setting.
Giddey is shooting 38% on 3s this season. Defenses mostly let him take those shots and play off him to pack the paint. But Giddey made 53.3% of his 3s against the Heat this season. If that comes down somewhere closer to his season average, then he won’t hurt the Heat as much.
But the Heat still need to find someone who can credibly guard him. If Spoelstra sticks with his starting lineup (Herro, Burks, Wiggins, Adebayo and Kel’el Ware), then Wiggins is likely to take on that assignment. Spoelstra could also switch it up in this win-or-go-home scenario and swap Burks for Mitchell.
Miami’s X-factor: Bam Adebayo’s jumper
If the Bulls are going to take away the rim, then Bam has to make more of his free-throw line jumpers. He made just 39.3% of his non-restricted area paint jumpers against Chicago this season.
When that shot is going in, it ignites Miami’s offense. Defenders have to play up more, and that opens up things behind the defense.
The Heat have to do a better job of getting Bam that shot in rhythm. High pick-and-roll that forces the Bulls to defend more ground could be the ticket, but it will also require high-quality games from Herro and Mitchell.