How the Heat found another gem in Pelle Larsson

The Miami Heat have done it again. They found another gem late in the draft that has already flashed enough to show he could be a key contributor. That is, of course, Pelle Larsson, a 44th overall pick from the University of Arizona.

He has already appeared in 15 of the 22 games (two with an injury). He’s also had four games with 20+ minutes, none of which came in garbage time. In three of those games, he was closing in a clutch game against the Sacramento Kings, Dallas Mavericks (who also played the entire overtime), and the Milwaukee Bucks.

It’s clear that Erik Spoelstra has trusted him enough to warrant, not only more minutes, but to play high stake minutes. That says a lot.

His overall stats so far don’t scream anything wow. He’s averaging 6.0 points, 2.0 rebounds, and 1.5 assists per game on 62.7% eFG, 62.7% TS, and shooting 67.6% from 2pt and 37.9% from 3pt. If you do per 75 possessions, you get a typical role-player stat line of 13.6 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 3.3 assists.

But that’s exactly the role he needed to fill and has done so.

The signs were there for this kind of impact and play in the summer league. Yes, it was summer league and there’s only so much that you can take away from it but to me, that holds more weight for players that are stuffing the stat sheet mainly through on-ball opportunities. To put it simply, being a bucket-getter in summer league isn’t something to put much stock in.

Meanwhile, with Larsson, he was playing the exact role that he’s playing now. He played within the offense. He didn’t need to have the ball or dribble to be effective. He was willing to make the extra pass. He read the court well. And most importantly, the effort on the defensive end was loud. All of that showed in his 15 games to start his career.

A quick stat (though a very limited sample size), the Heat in 59 minutes with Larsson, Bam Adebayo, and Jimmy Butler have a +29.2 net rating with a 137.1 ORTG and 107.9 DRTG. If you include Tyler Herro and only the games that they all played in, with all four on, in 49 minutes, they have a +33.3 net and -1.8 with those three on but no Larsson.

So, let’s breakdown how he’s earned the trust and continued to contribute.

The first and simplest way any player can do to make life easier for the team is to be both a willing and a good shooter from 3pt. So far, he’s shooting 37.9% on 4.3 3s per 100 possessions. He has a .460 3pt rate to go along with it. In 12 games where he saw at least 10+ minutes, he made at least one 3-pointer in nine of them.

Any reliable role player needs to be able to make 3s when given the shot. There’s no hesitancy from him. There’s no poor shooting history either.

He can be the spot up shooter in the corner as the release valve when needed. Having an elite corner shooter is needed and he’s 5/11 there. Teams won’t be able to make a simple decision to help if he’s in the corner. He’s also been smart with his lifts to make those openings for kick outs easier.

The only thing to point out is the volume should be higher. Even on a per 100 possession basis, that is still very low — for comparison, Bam Adebayo is taking 4.1. There’s also a handful of other players that play around the same minutes that have a much higher volume: Eric Gordon (7.9), Reed Sheppard (9.6), Ryan Dunn (10.3), Ty Jerome (7.6), Simone Fontecchio (9.5), and Garrison Matthews (11.2). It is possible to chuck up more shots in limited minutes.

But he’s also not just a 3-point specialist. It’s why he’s also shooting 67.2% from inside the arc. He’s 18/28 at the rim. That’s 64.3% with a 44.4% rim rate. That is another key trait of a valuable role player. They need to have an efficient diet.

He’s done this in three ways. The first is his cutting and it’s my favorite. I have loved his cutting:

He’s been one of the best cutters on this team. He knows when to move and is willing to constantly be on the go. If he sees the defense sleeping, that’s an automatic back-cut. If there is a drive that collapses the defense, he will cut into space for an easy layup.

There are also plays like these:

He doesn’t score on these plays but he opens up a shot elsewhere. Being an active cutter doesn’t always have to result in the player scoring. Cuts like these are just as valuable to the entire flow of the offense. The Heat have had a strong tendency to standstill spaced out, so having someone like Larsson doing this is needed. Here are other examples of plays like that here and here!

Next is using his 3pt shooting to draw closeouts and beat them:

The third important trait is being capable of maintaining an advantage. It’s putting the ball down and doing something with it quickly without killing that advantage. You don’t want to stall the possession or take forever to make a decision. Suppose a player draws a hard closeout to take away the 3-point shot, that needs to be a hard drive to the rim and force the defense to react. Larsson has been able to do that and get to the rim to finish.

Combine that with his spot-up shooting, and that’s why he’s scoring 1.31 points per possession on spot-ups with 43.8% of his offense here. That’s in the 89th percentile. Even his raw field goal percentage is at 55.6%! One reason for such a boost is he has a 20.0% shooting foul frequency. He’s getting to the line off those closeouts too.

Finally, it’s the little stuff in transition.

He’s scoring 1.17 points per possession with 22.5% of his offense here. That is in the 58th percentile. The actual shooting efficiency is quite high, where he’s shooting 1.42 points per shot, but it’s the 16.7% turnover rate that drags his overall efficiency down. That needs to be cleaned up.

Here are also his assists so far:

As a whole, there hasn’t been much room to showcase some of the passing that he’s flashed in summer league, but it’s the simple reads that are just as important in his role. It’s moving the ball. It’s making the extra pass. It’s making the kick when driving.

It is funny, though, that he’s already third in potential assists per 100 passes, per BBall-Index. That does indicate that within his role, he is moving the ball constantly.

Offensively, there are little issues with his game and that’s why he’s been able to contribute and be relied on in clutch games. You know what you’re getting from him. He’s not taking anything away from anyone else. He doesn’t need to have plays or actions run for him and there’s no need to do that either.

His job is to fit in with the best players and make their life easier by doing the little things and limiting the number of mistakes. Don’t turn the ball over (though that is an area that needs to be improved on). Don’t kill possessions. Don’t stand still or be invisible.

But that’s just the offense. His defense has been just as important and likely the reason Spoelstra has trusted him so much already. In his first game where he closed, he was tasked with defending DeAaron Fox in the fourth quarter.

The part that stood out was the on-ball defense. That’s what helped him get more minutes. He’s not a liability defending the ball.

This has been the most encouraging part of his defense and it’s also what stood out the most in summer league, too. There’s no question of effort here either. He hustles and wants to play defense. On top of that, he also looks good doing so. It’s not carried by just working hard but how he does it also popped out.

He hasn’t been getting beat as easily. He’s 6’5 and plays like it when defending someone bigger or stronger. He’s had a few really good possessions completely walling off a drive. And his effort going around the screen and recovering has also been fun to watch.

His off ball defense is hit or miss:

There have been plenty of encouraging points. He’s been good at digging and helping at the nail. His tags on rollers have usually been early and solid. But it’s also the one area that when it’s been bad, it’s been bad. That is common for rookies — that was also my big criticism of Jaime Jaquez Jr last year, which improved as the year went on after more reps.

Overall, the Heat did it again. I can’t wait until Larsson’s outburst for 25/5/7 in the elimination game is the reason they win against the Boston Celtics. It will happen.

Although there are many areas of much needing improvement, such as taking care of the ball more and his off-ball defense, he still has shown enough that he 100% warrants to be in the rotation. His shooting, which also should easily be at a much higher volume, to go along with his smart off-ball movement will continue to be the reason he’s impactful with the stars.