Jimmy Butler's return should inspire this bigger Miami Heat lineup change

The Miami Heat went 3-4 without Jimmy Butler, and dare I say, there were plenty of fun moments while the team went under .500. We're learning a lot about the future of this roster. Who fits? Who can be an All-Star? These are deep-layered questions that only reps and time shared on the floor can answer.

1. Tyler Herro's shooting opens up more for the Heat
2. Pivotal core members developing their 2-man game
3. Jaime Jaquez Jr. is a trickster with an uncanny game
4. Duncan Robinson needs to return to the starting lineup with Butler returning
5. Scary Terry is striking fear in the wrong people 

Tyler Herro's shooting opens up more for the Heat

Herro hit 18 threes in the three-game slate this week. His shooting has never been a question, but how much he gets to the cup and free-throw line has been a sticking point (.17 FT rate excluding this season). 

He's put in a ton of work to add strength and improve his game. His shooting opens up everything for him, including driving lanes, leading to more charity stripe shots. NBA "fans" love to harp on guys who take a lot of free throws, calling them "foul merchants," but not getting to the line enough is a flaw.

Herro is 11th in the league with 487 total drives. He's on pace for a career-high in drives, but his driving numbers in the past aren't terrible. This year's difference is how intentional he is about beelining to the hoop and finishing at the basket (or trying, too). 

This mentality and those midrange shots disintegrating are recipes for more free throws. Herro shot a season-high 12 free throws in the Clippers game this week. That's peak James Harden stuff. That performance was especially Harden-esque, considering Herro got fouled from the 3-point line a few times, but we are here for the drives.

That added strength comes in handy when it's time to initiate contact to get to the line. Herro pulled a Harden on Harden. Herro's .24 FT rate is still lower than you'd like, but that's a career-high for him—the first time his rate has hit .20. It's a step in the right direction.

The transition drives from Herro have been so fun. He's been a torpedo in the open floor, turning defenders as they're fearful of his Curry range shooting.  

Portland's Deni Avdija is a top wing defender, but Herro getting into his in-and-out bag froze Avadija, and the rest was easy work for Herro. His shot aids everything in his game, and he has weaponized it more and more this season with constant drives. 

Pivotal core members developing their 2-man game

Nikola Jovic took it to heart when Kel'el Ware told his teammates to throw it anywhere, and he'd go get it. Jovic looks for his 7-foot running mate even in inopportune moments.

The budding trust between those two is an important development. While we transition into a new Heat era, it is key that the core pieces fit, and those two are glove fits, at least offensively.

Jovic is one of the best passers on the roster. What stands out the most isn't his accuracy, velocity, or diverse passes. It's the timing of these big-to-big connections.

On this first lob in the Lakers game, Shake Milton did a double take and saw Ware dangling over him, and the lob was still thrown. You're supposed to do that when your rookie big has a miniature player on his hip. Jovic times it perfectly, and we got another monster Ware slam.

When the Lakers sent two to the ball, Jovic's instincts kicked in, and naturally, another lob went Ware's way. Even when defenses defuse their hookups, the seeds planted are still too good to ignore. The Heat's core six is Herro, Adeabyo, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Pelle Larrson(?), Ware, and Jovic. If this next era is going to sustain the success of Jimmy-Heat, another one of these players needs to reach the All-Star level.

Herro and Adebayo are there, but who will come along for the ride? Jovic and Ware need to grow on the other side of the floor to get there (Herro isn't a stout defender, but his offense is All-Star level). 

There were moments this week when Jovic turned the ball over and didn't sprint back, a big no-no for any player looking to establish themselves in the league. While Ware's rim-protecting upside is obvious, the rookie mistakes will continue. Jovic, in particular, has the potential to be a consistent all-around player when he's mentally in it. He has the best shot to reach All-Star level among the other four core members. 

While Jovic has the most upside, one of the other Heats core member is more consistent with the opportunities he gets.

Jaime Jaquez Jr. is a trickster with an uncanny game

The turnover-infested games were largely why the Heat went 1-2 this week. Jaime Jaquez Jr. was one of the culprits. Some turnovers were lazy passes, and some were him trying to attack two-time DPOY Kawhi Leonard. He's not perfect, and that's what these reps are for. Overall, he made the most in these Butler-less games, averaging 14 points, five assists, and five boards while boasting a 61 TS%. That'll work.

The craft sticks out like a sore thumb nightly. Did you ever think you'd see a Jaquez/Steve Nash comp? Well, here we go.

Jaquez's craft was on full display in this sequence. It's not every game you see a 6-foot-6 wing nashing at the rim. That's usually reserved for small guards or the electric LaMelo Ball.

He took Ivica Zubac all the way around the world before scooting by him with a hard-tween followed by a wrong-foot off-hand lay. That was too smooth. That run around the hoop is the "nashing" I'm referring to. Keeping your dribble alive keeps your options open while you survey the floor, and Nash made a living abusing defenses this way. 

Jaquez isn't the deep-range shooter Nash is, but he was 40% on three attempts in this seven-game stretch. That'll work, too. It will be interesting to see how Jaquez plays with Butler's return on the horizon.  

Duncan Robinson needs to return to the starting lineup with Butler returning

Last week, Duncan Robinson's standout dribble handoff game was the topic of conversation. We know he's an All-Time shooter. Cool. Last year, his growth as a driver was impressive, as he took a career-high 103 shots at the rim. Robsinson is a pro's pro, constantly adding to his game and staying ready for his number to be called.

He surprises us with something new every year. This chase-down block against LeBron and the Lakers had to feel like deja vu for LeBron. He's done that many times in a Heat jersey, but that can't be said for Robinson. Austin Reaves was just as surprised as the rest of us. While Robinson continues to stay professional, his spotty minutes are concerning.

Defense is essential, and Robinson is suspect on an individual level. But does that really explain why he got pulled from the starting lineup? Probably not. Terry Rozier basically took his spot, and I understand he's a better ball handler, but he's costing the Heat the most defensively among the guards.

Robinson is one of the few players who actively looks to get Bam Adebayo going. Adebayo is good enough to make these short rage shots, but he's missing them time and time again. Robinson tries to get him going when he checks in.

Their DHO connection is next level, and Robinson has grown enough as a passer to hit Adebayo on rolls to the rim when the defense sticks with him. 

Those two are plus-2 in 598 minutes together. Numbers aside, Robinson helps get the max-contact franchise player going. That alone should've kept him in the starting lineup when Butler was out and with Adebayo struggling. But Erik Spoelstra wanted more balance in the lineup. Rozier, in theory, should be a balancing force on the team, combining his AND1 handles with shot-making, but we haven't seen that since he got hurt last season. 

Scary Terry is striking fear in the wrong people 

Layups like this have been the epitome of Terry Rozier's year. That's a million-dollar move with a two-cent finish. At this point, I feel for the guy.

The missed layups have always been a thing (48% at the rim in MIA last year), but he can't get it going from three off the catch or the dribble. Shot creation was the intriguing thing about his game when Miami traded a 1st round pick and Kyle Lowry for him. The layups have always been 50/50, but teams could count on scary Terry making tough, timely shots-- those days may be behind us. In Miami, at least 

Over the last 10 games, he's shooting 13.5% from 3 on 5.2 attempts. It's hard to shoot that poorly, even on purpose. Heat followers have ridiculed his shot selection. 

The stop-on-the-break and sidestep hand-in-face 3s he's bricking have been staples in his game over the years. It's artistic basketball expression when he's making those shots but an eye-sore when nailing 14% of said shots. 

These shots are his game, and I believe the coaching staff is telling him to shoot his way out of the poorest season of his career relative to expectations. I can't imagine Spo watching sidestep 3s brick game after game and not reiterating to Rozier that he needs to keep shooting. If Spo had a problem with these shots, Rozier would be benched for taking them. Everyone seems to want to get Rozier's best, and tough shots were his calling card.

The Heat should want to get Rozier's value up to deal with him before his contract ends. On the flip side, Rozier is not impacting winning with his shot selection, turn-stop off-ball defense, or decision-making. He's been one of the downsides to an already tumultuous Heat year. His value isn't going up shooting that poorly from 3 when he's already an inconsistent finisher. The tough part about this is I bet he finds his groove whenever he leaves the 305. We'll see social media posts asking why he couldn't do this in Miami, but truth be told, it just hasn't worked out here, and sometimes that happens.

Stats as of 1/17/25 via PBP Stats, PivotFade, NBA.com, Cleaning The Glass, and Basketball Reference