In one of the most stunning turns in NBA history, the Dallas Mavericks traded Luka Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers late Saturday night.
The deal sends Anthony Davis to Dallas, upends the Mavericks’ timeline and adds an international superstar to one of the NBA’s marquee franchises. The ramifications of the trade not only sent shockwaves through the league, but will also trickle into the decision-making of every franchise in the league.
For the Miami Heat, the deal could impact how they handle a Jimmy Butler trade and what they prioritize in negotiations.
The Heat had been prioritizing cap space in 2026 that would allow them to be a major player to pursue a class of free agents that could include Doncic, De’Aaron Fox, Kevin Durant and others.
If the Heat can trade Butler and avoid taking on salary on the books beyond the 2025-26 season, they could clear up to $80 million in space. Miami has long been a place where star players want to play.
Most stars sign contract extensions before hitting free agency, but the Heat want the flexibility to add a star player eager to change teams via free agency or trade.
Doncic is no longer eligible for the supermax extension, but he's ineligible with any team after the trade. That no longer factors into his decision. Still, he will be eligible to sign a contract extension this summer that will take him through at least the 2027-28 season.
While there’s no report that indicates Doncic will sign that extension this summer with the Lakers, it’s widely believed that he will. Players of Doncic’s magnitude (and injury history) don’t typically bypass those extensions, especially when it’s been proven that stars can force a trade to a new location if they decide they want a change of scenery.
If the Mavericks were concerned that Doncic wouldn’t sign an extension and wanted to get ahead of it before this summer, that would help make a very confusing trade make more sense.
But the Mavericks are not the Lakers. The Lakers have the benefit of being in a large market, where players can play within the courtside view of countless celebrities and have opened up for them unrivaled off-the-court opportunities. Star players don’t leave Los Angeles by their own accord. They navigate their way there.
Most agree that the Lakers won this trade, but they would not have made it if they weren’t prepared to offer Doncic the extension. He is expected to take it. That would take the prize of the 2026 free agent class off the market.
(I’ve seen the argument that Doncic might prefer to return to a state with little-to-no state income tax, as opposed to playing in California. In my experience, this is a very small factor when it comes to the decision-making of star players who often have a lot of ways to generate income besides their basketball contract.)
Another potential Heat target could be on the move before Thursday’s trade deadline. The Sacramento Kings are open to trading De’Aaron Fox, and there’s growing belief in league circles that a deal will send Fox to the San Antonio Spurs this week.
Fox is eligible to sign an extension, and will presumably do so when he lands in San Antonio – his reported desired location.
By June, two of the top names of the 2026 free agent class could be off the board. Sure, players like Durant, Trae Young and Jaren Jackson Jr. could still be potentially available, but it might only be a matter of time before they sign extensions, too.
And while a generational talent who has experience leading a team to the Finals like Doncic is worth waiting for, these other names are in a different class. Even Durant will be 38 by then.
Suddenly, the summer worth building a Butler trade around is no longer a viable path to a star.
The Heat need a new strategy. One that is more proactive and even more impatient. Stars rarely hit free agency these days and, if they do, might be on the other side of their prime (such as Paul George last summer). LeBron James isn’t sitting down with Jim Gray and announcing he wants to sign in South Beach anymore.
The Heat need tradeable contracts, draft picks, and financial flexibility under the luxury tax.
With Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro, Miami has a pair of All-Stars to build around. The organization remains high on youngsters like Kel’el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Nikola Jovic.
But the Heat have just one tradeable first-round pick, and the biggest contracts beyond their All-Stars (Terry Rozier and Duncan Robinson) aren’t easily moveable.
When the Heat are scanning the market for Butler deals in the coming days, they need to be thinking about positioning themselves to trade for their next star, not signing one in a 2026 summer that, more likely than not, will be a dud.