The Miami Heat are in a tailspin. After dropping their eighth straight game in a blowout loss to the New York Knicks, the Heat have plummeted to the ninth-worst record in the league. This isn't just a rough patch -- it's a full-blown collapse.
This isn’t turning around in any meaningful way. They're getting blown out by 30 on the regular. The third quarter against New York was an absolute disaster, with the Knicks outscoring Miami 41-15. It's gotten so bad that even Tracy Morgan couldn't stomach watching courtside, literally puking on the floor. When celebrities are vomiting at the sight of your team, you know things aren’t awesome.
“We’re going through the dark days right now,” Jaime Jaquez Jr. said.
After Miami’s loss and the Chicago Bulls’ win over the Utah Jazz on Monday night, the Heat have dropped to 10th place in the East and are 10 games under .500 for the first time since the 2016-17 season. If the standings were frozen today, the Heat would have the ninth-best odds in the NBA Draft lottery.
Despite the skid, Miami is still a near-lock to make the play-in tournament. But a play-in elimination would result in maintaining their place in the lottery. Make the playoffs, and the Heat would jump to the middle of the first round.
Is it time to embrace the tank?
There are reasons why the Heat shouldn’t. They owe the Oklahoma City Thunder a top-14 protected pick this year or an unprotected pick next year. While Miami would keep its pick by missing the playoffs this year, that would result in next year’s pick being completely unprotected. It would also kick a top-14 protected pick owed to the Charlotte Hornets in 2027 to unprotected in 2028. That scenario opens the Heat up to risk of losing a top pick those summers. The indication is that the Heat would prefer to make the playoffs this season and keep the protections on those picks.
The Heat might be bad enough to not have to tank on purpose.
Here’s the thing: the Heat may not have to “embrace” it, per se, the way teams like the Jazz and Raptors have. The Jazz were recently fined for resting players, while the Raptors are routinely benching their starters in the fourth quarter of close games.
Instead, the Heat have just been traditionally bad. Including Monday’s loss, they have blown double-digit leads in 18 losses this season. That ties the Jazz for the most such collapses this season.
“We have not come up with solutions and we’ve pretty much tried everything,” coach Erik Spoelstra said. “This has been one of the biggest challenges of a regular season that I’ve been a part of.”
Since Jan. 1, the Heat have dropped from fifth in the East to 10th. In that time, they rank 26th in offensive rating, 15th in defensive rating and are being outscored by 4.9 points every 100 possessions (the 22nd-worst mark in the league).
The Heat (29-39) are one of four teams within a game of each other in the standings, along with the Spurs (28-39), Bulls (29-39) and Trail Blazers (30-39).
Dropping lower than eighth, at this stage, seems improbable since the seventh-worst Raptors are 5.5 losses behind of the Heat.
The Suns, Mavericks and Kings are 2.5, 3.5 and 4.5 wins ahead of the Heat to round out the lottery.
The Heat can probably get as low as eight.
— Wes Goldberg (@wcgoldberg) March 18, 2025
Would come with a 26.3% chance of landing a top-four pick (up from 14.7%). pic.twitter.com/4RW4rY2hde
But the Heat could benefit from dropping one spot down, from No. 9 in the lottery to No. 8. If the Heat could crack the top eight in lottery position, the odds of landing a top-four pick would increase from 17.3% to 26.3%, while their slim odds of landing the No. 1 overall pick would increase from 3.8% to 6%.
The Heat’s schedule does not let up any time soon. They will return home to face the sixth-seed Detroit Pistons on Wednesday before games against the Houston Rockets, Charlotte Hornets, Golden State Warriors and Atlanta Hawks. All but one of those teams are ahead of Miami in the standings, and the Heat lost to the Hornets in a close game earlier this month.
The Heat also face the Celtics, Grizzlies and Bucks before the regular season is over in mid-April. Miami’s April 9 game against the Bulls could be a tank-a-thon showdown.
Compared to the teams the Heat are “competing” with for lottery position, the Raptors have the league’s easiest remaining strength of schedule, while the Spurs and Blazers have among the most difficult.
Tanking is a forbidden word in Miami but, for a franchise that hasn't had a top-10 pick in ages, this is a golden opportunity to inject some desperately needed talent. If the front office believes it can find a difference-maker in the top 10 of this draft, it might consider manipulating the standings.
Some fans will cling to the Heat's culture and refuse to accept tanking. But even the most optimistic Heat lifer has to see the writing on the wall. This isn't the same scrappy underdog team that clawed its way to the Finals. The magic is gone. Sometimes you need to take a step back to take two steps forward.