Perhaps Bam Adebayo said it best after the Miami Heat's final loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers to complete their playoff exit.
"There are going to be a lot of changes this summer, knowing how the guy with the silver hair works," Adebayo said. "Be prepared for that."
After two straight first-round exits, the Heat need to shake things up this summer. What worked in the past won’t work in the future. Most obviously, they need a talent upgrade. Pat Riley will do his usual stargazing, but it’s fair to expect a few more changes.
Whether it’s through free agency, trades or cuts, a few players could be jettisoned as the Heat jumpstart their rebuild.
1. Keshad Johnson
The Heat like Johnson’s attitude, athleticism and development in the G League, but it’s far from a guarantee that he will return on his standard contract next season, which is a club option and fully non-guaranteed.
If the Heat need a roster spot, they could decline his option for next season and bring him back on a two-way contract.
Johnson played well in Miami’s regular-season finale, tallying 17 points on 7 of 9 shooting (2 of 3 on 3s), eight rebounds and two steals in 28 minutes. The Heat need him to develop into a capable 3-point shooter after he shot 24% from deep in the G League.
2. Kevin Love
At 36, Love’s best basketball is behind him, but he’s still a valued presence in the Heat locker room. He’s well-liked and respected within the organization, even if his Instagram antics fall a bit outside the Heat’s code of conduct. Love had good days in Miami, but his best utility was spacing the floor for Butler, who is no longer here.
Love is under contract for $4.1 million next season, and the Heat could theoretically get more production for half the price from a younger player. Miami could try to shop him to a team needing his veteran leadership.
3. Duncan Robinson
It’s been a fine season for Robinson, who started as many games (37) as he came off the bench. He averaged 11 points, 2.4 assists and shot 39.3% from 3 – everything you’d expect from the Heat’s all-time leader in made 3-pointers.
But Robinson is one of five players due to make more than $19 million next season, and if the Heat attempt to cut payroll, he’d be the easiest high-priced player to move.
The Heat are projected to be more than $19 million over the salary cap, according to Spotrac.
Of the $19.9 million Robinson is owed next season, only $9.9 million is guaranteed if he’s waived before July 8. The Heat can waive Robinson and save $10 million against the cap.
Should they look to trade Robinson, his contract might be attractive to a team like Phoenix trying to trim payroll.
Robinson also has an early termination option he can use to end his contract and become an unrestricted free agent before June 29.
4. Terry Rozier
Last January’s trade for Rozier turned out to be a bust. In his last 30 games in Charlotte, Rozier averaged 23.2 points on 46% shooting. In 1 ½ seasons in Miami, he’s averaging 12.5 points on 40% shooting.
His struggles are among the biggest reasons for Miami’s disappointing season. The Heat were out-scored by 141 points with Rozier on the court this season.
The decline has been severe, and now the Heat are on the hook to pay Rozier $26.6 million next season. All but $1.7 million is guaranteed, so waiving Rozier is not an option. They could waive and stretch Rozier, which would result in a dead-cap hit of $8.3 million over the next three seasons. That would be a last resort.
The Heat would prefer to include Rozier in a trade for an upgrade. Rozier’s contract expires after next season, which could provide his new team with short-term flexibility if they are willing to deal with his salary for a season.
It would be surprising if the Heat attach important assets to Rozier to get off his salary.
5. Dru Smith
Smith was on track to earn a spot on the 15-man roster before he tore his Achilles in the Heat’s game against the Nets on Dec. 23. It’s Smith’s second straight season-ending injury, and now the Heat have to weigh whether they’ll bring him back for a fourth season.
At 27, Smith is still young enough to recover, but the Heat might prefer to use their two-way spots on younger prospects with higher upside. Perhaps they could offer him a standard contract if his rehab goes well this summer, but Davion Mitchell’s addition curbs the need for another defensive-minded point guard.
The Heat like Smith and will consider his future carefully, but there’s a chance that the organization could move on.
6. Andrew Wiggins
Wiggins has played well for the Heat when he’s been on the court, but his availability has been a concern. He’s played in just 17 of 31 possible games since coming over at the Feb. 6 trade deadline.
But Wiggins is the kind of versatile, fit-everywhere wing teams covet in a trade. He’s not a needle-moving star, but his defense, shooting and experience make him a no-frills value add.
If the Heat are going to trade for a star, Wiggins seems like the most likely big-money player to be sent out in a package.