The Miami Heat struggle in crunch time: Is it time to look forward to the draft?

Davion Mitchell's technical foul for double-bouncing the ball perfectly encapsulates this year's doozy. Emotions are high, and you know it's wrong, but it must be done.

We're all frustrated watching these snooze fests. I'd rather have a 2007-08 type season with a realistically game-changing draft pick (it was supposed to be) on the board. These Heat aren't bad enough to potentially make waves in a loaded draft class—well, not bad enough yet, at least. 

This week, they became the first Southeast Division team to lose to the Charlotte Hornets, probably the season's lowest point. 

1. The Heat's clutch offense is different than the contenders
2. Andrew Wiggins doesn't post enough
3. Shooters shoot? Or should shooters pump the breaks?
4. Bam Adebayo has been money in crunch time, but his opportunities are limited 
5. Heat continue to freefall in a comical division race 

The Heat's clutch offense is different than the contenders

The Heat's offense hasn't operated effectively during crunch time. I'm actually underselling it with that statement. They've been pretty horrendous. Miami is 29th in crunch offensive rating.

I hand-tracked every Heat half-court possession in the final five minutes of the deflating Hornets loss. Their 116.7 clutch offensive rating was much better than their season-long 97.6 figure.

Elite teams have play types they spam when they need a bucket: usually a high pick-and-roll with a top-notch playmaker. Miami doesn't have that, so they rely on the shooting gravity of Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro. Bam Adebayo's screening and hub abilities are key factors for Miami down the stretch.

Time after time, Miami ran some variation of a Robinson down screen for Bam, followed by a Spain pick for Herro or Herro coming off a Bam screen. Their idea is that the two sharpshooters screening off each other would create miscommunication, as defenses aren't keen on letting either of those guys fire open looks.

The results varied, but the process was better for the most part. We're working with what we have. With nobody who can flat out go get it, Miami has to settle for team ball play types.

Andrew Wiggins and Haywood Highsmith were deployed to the corner like an army base. They were spaced out, but the Hornets were comfortable stunting off them to attempt to rattle the ball handler. 

Highsmith hanging out in the corner on some possession tracks. He's not breaking down a defense on the ball. His instinctual cutting ability could have been utilized, but I guess he's a corner guy.

Andrew Wiggins doesn't post enough

Wiggins is versatile enough to see some touches down the stretch. When in scramble mode, he collapsed the Hornet's defense after a Heat sideline inbounds possession. He did get two pick-and-roll ball-handling opportunities to start the clutch, but his touches quickly faded. Wiggins can create as good as anyone on the roster when factoring in the matchups he's getting— he needs more than spacer keys. 

Miami already runs gimmicky sets down the stretch to confuse defenses. Allowing Andrew Wiggins to go one-on-one from his sweet spot results in buckets or kickouts. The Heat could run the same off-ball actions for Robinson and Herro, with Wiggins operating from the post. This leaves Bam as a corner guy, but he's a human torch, 52.6% from the corners since February 1st.

Wiggins' post possessions aren't brutal watches-- he should do it more often with this team. 

His overall scoring has been standard for a third option. Players outperform their usual selves in Miami, and we've become numb to that. This is what it looks like when you aren't overachieving. 

Wiggins is playing within himself. If he had a Steph Curry-like teammate by his side again, his near 19 ppg would feel more impactful. Wiggins's 3-ball has been broken in Miami, but even the team's best shooter isn't finding luck from deep. 

Shooters shoot? Or should shooters pump the breaks?

It's a hard pill to swallow, but these heroic Tyler Herro 3s have been an issue. If he makes these, he's a hero—if he misses them, he's a vigilante who half the public has turned on.

The Heat's offense is shaky at best when functioning, so I understand the allure of crushing opponents with a back-breaking 3, especially in Herro's case.

This erratic pull-up 3 in the clutch was in his game before he took an All-Star leap. We applauded the cojones on the young rookie when he sent the 76ers packing. 

One could argue that this shot was a bad process and a good result, but you could say that about almost all the impossible Steph Curry 3s. It's not letting it slide—it's obvious that Curry is the greatest shooter and a top-10 player ever, so the audacious shots feel different when 30 from the bay takes them. 

Herro wants to be Curry-like and was taking head-scratching confidence-to-the-roof 3s before emulating Curry's 3's and layups shot diet.

Herro is a career 38% deep-range shooter, and every shot feels good. He's always believed in himself but hasn't been "him" since being named an All-Star. He's shooting a shivering 31% on 8 3PA. Let's diversify our clutch shot selection since we're struggling mightily from deep. 

I can't get with the "he's complacent" noise. It's more likely that he's figuring out how tough it is to carry a team for 82 games. He can hand the baton to his teammate in clutch situations because he's ready to dash like an anchor leg (when spoon-fed).

Bam Adebayo has been money in crunch time, but his opportunities are limited 

When the non-score-first center is the clutchest player on the roster statistically (unless they're a Jokic creator), it will be tough to create good looks consistently. Bam has been that player for Miami.

He air-balled a critical 25-footer in the Hornets' loss, but his numbers stand out. Bam is shooting 53% on 64 clutch shots, much better than Herro's 29% on 99 shots and Terry Rozier's 27% on 26 attempts. No other player besides those three has taken more than 20 clutch shots. 

As a big, Bam can't get into these shots as easily as Herro can. He needs ball handlers to make his job easier. 

Make or miss, the guard here can use his handle more functionally than Bam to get a shot off. Bam could do what Rozier does, but those contested low-percentage shots shouldn't be in anyone on the Heat's diet.

Herro hasn't made many of these shots, and Bam cannot consistently create the good looks he gets. The poor clutch offense stems from limited creativity, a lack of talent, and predictable possessions. 

The clutch offense didn't lead to the most lifeless loss of the year—it was the Heat allowing Miles Bridges to erupt for 13 points and three 3-pointers in the fourth quarter.

Charlotte and Bridges got whatever they wanted, posting an absurd 166.7 offensive rating in those last brutal minutes. A loss like that signifies something larger at play.

Heat continue to freefall in a comical division race 

The Charlotte Hornets won their first Southeast Division game against the Heat earlier this week. How bad of a team are you getting your first division win in March in an all-time bad division?

The Hornets are tanking, and the Heat losing to them in early March shows what type of season it's been. The hope of winning the division is almost out of the window, considering how Trae Young, Dyson Daniels, and Zaccharie Risacher are handling business. Miami will either host a play-in game in the 9-10 matchup or go on the road in the 7-8 matchup unless a miraculous turnaround occurs (Dwade, LeBron, Bosh, or Jimmy isn't walking through that door). That pegs the question: should Miami seriously consider tanking?

We know the Heat way: gladiator-fight to the death even when victory isn't in sight. Erik Spoelstra has tried everything. The rotation pattern switches on a game-to-game basis. Even if you disagree with the rotations (no fan likes their team's rotations), you must admit Spo is trying to mix it up.

We've seen Terry Rozier in and out of the lineup recently, but the results are the same—mid, middle of the pack, below-average. However you want to sum up the 2025 Heat, you'll always return to the fact that they're just not that good of a roster.

Staying out of this purgatory "not good enough to win but not bad enough to be terrible" range requires A. adding a true No. 1 in free agency (unlikely), B. trading for a true No. 1, or C. tank as far as you can for a nice pick in a loaded 2025 draft.

Tanking goes against the basketball gods and principles I believe in, but the Heat are in a funky spot. They're sliding low enough to get some lottery luck if that's in the basketball gods' plan. The Blazers are playing ball better lately, and the Spurs aren't draft-needy with the nucleus they've curated. But DeAaron Fox is out with a pinky injury for the year, so they may be a bit needy. 

Pat Riley and Spo would never sign on to a full-on tank, but an inadvertent tank looks like it's taking place whether they know it or not. Miami is better than a team like the Hornets, but these losses are piling up, and the "we're just bad attitude" could snowball until the season ends. Tank or not, it's time to set our sights on some mock drafts as Heat watchers. They need playmaking and a wingy bucket-getter. Keep your eyes open for those archetypes during March Madness. 

Stats as of 03/12/25 via PivotFade, NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Cleaning The Glass, and PBP Stats.