Shut it down.
The Miami Heat have nothing left to play for, at least for the next two games. Wednesday night’s loss in Chicago virtually locks the Heat into the 10th seed. If they catch a break, maybe they can move up to ninth.
But who cares?
The only difference between nine and 10 is the grand honor of hosting the first play-in tournament game next Wednesday. Fun fact: the Heat have a losing record on the road and at home this season. It’s not as if hosting the game presents some huge advantage. So, again, I ask, who cares?
Friday in New Orleans and Sunday against the Wizards are winnable games. The Heat will likely be favored in both. They can win those games and end the season on a two-game win streak. Whoopty doo.
Or, they could take the smarter approach.
The Heat have nothing to play for.
The Heat are likely to face the Bulls in their first play-in game either way, but they are 0-3 against them this season. Josh Giddey becomes Magic Johnson in these matchups. Nikola Vucevic begins to resemble a Montenegrin Wilt Chamberlain. For whatever reason, the Bulls have the Heat’s number. (What a time to be alive.)
But if the Heat are serious about marching through the play-in tournament, they’ll need to be healthy.
Bam Adebayo, who sat out Monday’s game in Philadelphia with lower back spasms, wasn't 100% physically in Chicago. He can use a week off.
So could Tyler Herro, who has played the fifth-most minutes in the entire NBA this season. Andrew Wiggins’ right hamstring can use a bit more time. Give Duncan Robinson’s lower back a break.
Shut it down.
That would be the only way to find a positive in Wednesday night’s results. Had the Heat won, they could have kept alive a chance to move into the 7-8 matchup, where they’d have two chances to win one game and advance to the playoffs.
Instead, they have a 79.1% chance of remaining at 10, and only a 2.1% chance of moving out of the 9-10 game altogether, according to Basketball Reference’s playoff probabilities report. In other words, there’s a 98% chance they will have to win two straight games to make the playoffs as the eighth seed.
So rather than toil through meaningless games for the next week, the Heat should find the silver lining – a week off for their star players.
I have almost no faith that this team will win back-to-back games, but I’d feel differently if I knew that Adebayo, Herro, and Wiggins were healthier and fresher than their competition.
But there’s another, more important, reason to shut it down.
Lottery odds.
If the Heat do miss the playoffs, they will enter the NBA draft lottery. Right now, they have the 11th-best odds in the lottery, with a 9.4% chance of moving into the top four and a 2% chance of getting the No. 1 pick.
The Heat are a game ahead of Portland and Phoenix in the standings. Moving even one spot higher in the lottery odds would double Miami’s chances of landing a top-four pick.
Is it a guarantee that losing out would improve their lottery odds? No. But winning even one of the final two games guarantees that they wouldn’t.
So, the only approach that makes sense is to shut down the starters, give the Summer League Champs some run and throw these final two games.
And here’s the best part: They can do all of this under the guise of competition! Coaches and players can claim they are resting up for a playoff run, and Heat Culture can avoid the stink of tanking!
You can almost hear the quotes from practice after the plan is announced:
We’ve backed ourselves into a corner and now we have to do it the hard way. But we have to be smart about it. Bam, Tyler, Wiggs, everyone is dealing with nagging injuries. So we’re going to prioritize health and think about the bigger picture.
Come on, that’s a perfect Spo impression.
And he would be right. Even if some things are left unsaid, it’s also true.
No team has ever advanced from the 10th seed in the play-in to the playoffs. The Heat have made the impossible possible before, and this sick organization would get off on trying to do it again. But the only way would be to create a health advantage that they don’t have right now.
Rest the players. Lose the games. Improve the lottery odds. Then try to make history.
Shut it down.