The Miami Heat may have the young players, the disposable contracts, and the motivation to make a move for Giannis Antetokounmpo at the NBA Trade Deadline, but they're missing one very important piece of the puzzle: the flurry of tradeable first-round draft picks.
As ESPN's Bobby Marks points out, the Heat can't legally trade a first-round pick until nearly the next decade (2029). Even then, they only have two to offer. That could be a huge problem for a Milwaukee Bucks team that will almost certainly be asking for a premium of draft picks in exchange for Giannis.
And, honestly, that could be one of the bigger reasons why the Heat could very well miss out on Giannis if the Bucks decide to trade him ahead of the February 5 trade deadline.
The Heat may need the Bucks to hold off on a Giannis trade
Of course, the Heat's draft pick situation will certainly change during the offseason. If the Bucks were to wait until then, the Heat would have four first-round picks (at least) to offer in a deal for Giannis. At that point, you'd have to like the Heat's chance that much more.
But the Heat hoping for an offseason bidding war for Giannis doesn't come without other big risks.
The collection of teams in the market for Giannis could grow exponentially if this were all of a sudden an offseason situation. It's at that point that teams like the San Antonio Spurs, Houston Rockets, and perhaps even the Oklahoma City Thunder can second-guess their stance on a Giannis pursuit.
It'd be shocking if any of those teams decided to follow through with that at this year's NBA Trade Deadline.
However, if any or all of those teams fall short in the postseason, they may have a new motivation to put all the chips at the center of the table in a pursuit of Giannis.
If that were to happen, the extra two picks that become trade eligible may not even matter for the Heat, as the likelihood that any one of those teams could put a better offer on the table than the Heat would be pretty high.
But this is the reality that the Heat face in their pursuit of Giannis that not many want to admit.
Does this mean the Heat doesn't have a shot at Giannis? Absolutely not. There's a very realistic scenario that Giannis is in a Heat uniform at the start of next season. However, it does underscore just how little margin for error the Heat has and just how complicated it will be for the front office to pull off this dream scenario.