Tyler Herro is a good player, but he may only have a limited ceiling as a star player. A ceiling that may quite possibly lead the Miami Heat to the first round of the NBA Playoffs, and not much further. And for the Heat, that's not exactly what they want to hear when they have a huge decision to make regarding his upcoming eligibility for a huge contract extension.
In having this exact conversation on a recent podcast, one NBA writer said the quiet part out loud about Herro and the Heat.
On a recent episode of The Zach Lowe Podcast, Rob Mahoney was brutally honest about the difficult conversations that the Heat must have this offseason regarding Herro. And how those could lead them to the conclusion that the All-Star guard may have just had his career-best season, and it led them to being absolutely overwhelmed as a team in the first round of the NBA Playoffs.
To add insult to injury, the Heat were historically beaten in that first-round series against a Cleveland Cavaliers team that didn't end up being that great in retrospect.
At the very least, the Heat should be having some "what if" conversations about whether this is indeed the ceiling for the Herro-Bam Adebayo core duo. Where those conversations will lead them remains to be seen. However, it's almost impossible not to consider that when discussing a potential Herro extension.
The Herro decision will be quite telling
It will be interesting to see how the next few months unravel for the Heat. The Herro decision likely won't come until October, especially considering that he's not extension eligible until October 1, but once that window does open, the Heat's future will be largely dictated by what they decide to do.
During his end-of-the-season press conference, Pat Riley hinted at the idea of waiting until next season to discuss an extension with Herro, but in theory, you want to get those done sooner rather than later. As Herro said, it'll be a "little bit higher of a price" if they wait until next year.
I believe the Heat is going to try to extend Herro to a discounted extension. Maybe in the range of $30-40 million per year. If Herro declines it, which I assume will happen, that's when it truly gets interesting.
At that point, nothing is off the table for Herro and the Heat.
But if Herro did play to his ceiling this past season, how can the Heat pay him like a max player? Not only would it not compute to championship-level basketball, but it would greatly handicap a franchise by playing a fringe-star player like a superstar. And the quickest way to NBA mediocrity in today's game is doing just that.
If Mahoney is right and Herro did play to his ceiling this past season, it should make the Heat very hesitant about signing him to the huge extension. And if that's the way the next few months play out, you can't help but wonder what may lie ahead for both Herro and the Heat.