The Miami Heat are clearly going all-in on Giannis Antetokounmpo. But if they were to whiff on this gamble, it could leave a once-proud NBA franchise in a very bad spot.
For years, it seems as if the Heat have slowly been preparing for a potential all-out bid for Giannis. That much has now become crystal clear after the recent reporting surrounding the Heat's "interest," or lack thereof, in Ja Morant. Giannis is the clear goal, and they're going to get their shot at him. At least that's the hope.
Set for a big decision soon, Giannis must decide whether he wants to sign a long-term deal with the Milwaukee Bucks, put the onus on them to trade him, or flat-out ask for a trade. All of that is likely to be decided by this summer, if not sooner.
The Heat, along with several other teams across the league, are expecting that to happen.
The Heat need a lot of offseason luck to land Giannis
But if the Heat are going to see their pipe dream come to fruition, it's going to take a lot of fortune - and at least three dominoes to fall in their exact direction.
First, they need Giannis to either decline an extension this summer or ask for a trade. Second, they need Giannis to push for a trade to Miami, or at least have them on his theoretical short list of attractive landing spots. Third, the Heat needs to be able to beat out the competition in a likely bidding war for his services.
It won't be easy, and Pat Riley knows this. But it's the gamble that he's taken so many other times in his career, often being more successful than not in those situations.
However, if Riley (and the Heat's front office) were to swing and miss this time around, it could lead to a truly uncertain future for this franchise.
The Heat franchise could be in disarray if Giannis is traded elsewhere
And it would go well beyond just missing on Giannis, which would be disastrous enough. But it would also raise many questions about this team's philosophical approach to team building.
Without the Giannis dream to chase, how would the Heat pivot? Can they pivot? Or, at that point, would a complete overhaul be needed?
Would it be that shocking if the Heat were forced to blow it all up and start over from scratch if their pursuits of Giannis fail? After missing out on star player after star player since 2020, how much longer can this franchise sell the fan base on a plan that continues to fail?
At that point, what would be the lure of Riley as the face of the front office? That he's landed one star player in the last 12 years? And that he "failed" to properly build around him at that?
Missing out on Giannis wouldn't just hurt the Heat's chances in 2026-27, but it could force this organization to make sweeping changes - both personnel and philosophical - from top to bottom.
The Heat are not just fighting for Giannis over the next few months. There's so much more at stake, and the front office knows this.