Pelle Larsson is already settling the debate about Heat's final starter

The Miami Heat have four out of five starters locked in with point guard Davion Mitchell, wing Andrew Wiggins, and big men Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo. There's a three-player race at shooting guard, however, with Tim Hardaway Jr., Pelle Larsson, and Klay Thompson all seemingly in the running.

Though Hardaway and Thompson have appealing elements to what they bring to the table, Larsson is utilizing the 2027 FIBA World Cup qualifiers to remind the Heat that there isn't much of a debate to be had.

Hardaway is a productive scorer coming off of a season during which he shot 40.7 percent from beyond the arc. Thompson is a four-time NBA champion and one of the greatest shooters in Association history. Each thus check pivotal boxes for a team in need of spacing.

Larsson's subpar jumper has thus become the one factor working against him—but if his success in Europe is a sign of how he's building upon an already excellent profile, then the starting job should be his.

Though thriving in Europe and excelling in the NBA are two different conversations, Larsson is playing a style that should be able to translate.

Larsson burying stationary jumpers and showcasing the proficiency as a slasher and defender that Miami is already well aware of is a promising sign.

Pelle Larsson is dominating in Europe, building upon breakout 2025-26 NBA season

Hardaway and Thompson certainly have Larsson beat from a three-point shooting perspective. Hardaway shot 40.7 percent from beyond the arc in 2025-26 and is a career 36.5 percent shooter. Thompson buried 38.3 percent of his attempts in 2025-26 and has a career mark of 40.9.

Larsson, meanwhile, shot 33.7 percent from three-point range as a rookie in 2024-25 and converted just 32.3 percent of his attempts in 2025-26.

Larsson is already a better player in almost every other area of the game, however, which makes this debate both challenging and potentially easy to resolve. Larsson likely won't go from inefficient to elite as a shooter in one season, but if he can knock down the type of catch-and-shoot jumpers and set shots that he's making in Europe, then there's a weak case for benching him.

Yes, Larsson could thrive as the Heat's sixth man, but his defensive acumen, playmaking, and slashing also check boxes that the starting lineup will struggle to without him.

Heat need more than just jump shooting to contend

Larsson finished the 2025-26 season at 11.4 points and 3.4 assists in 26.4 minutes per game, shooting 49.6 percent from the field and 79.7 percent at the charity stripe. Those numbers translate to 15.6 points and 4.6 assists per 36 minutes. He also committed just 2.0 turnovers per 36.

For perspective: Of the Heat's perimeter players, only Mitchell averaged more assists than Larsson's 4.6 per 36 minutes in 2025-26. Hardaway and Thompson combined to average 4.8.

Furthermore, Larsson is one of the most efficient slashers on the Heat's roster. In 2025-26, he averaged 6.5 drives per game and 8.9 per 36 minutes. He shot 53.5 percent from the field on field goal attempts via drives.

Hardaway and Thompson, meanwhile, combined for 3.7 drives per game and 5.8 per 36 minutes. As one can see, Larsson accounted for more than the veterans' combined efforts on his own.

The clinching factor is that Larsson is, far and away, the best defender in this group. In 2025-26, he ranked in the 94th percentile in perimeter isolation defense, the 69th percentile in rim deterrence, and the 92nd percentile in matchup difficulty as a defender, per Basketball Index.

Hardaway, meanwhile, ranked in the 27th, 72nd, and 41st percentiles in those same areas, while Thompson finished in the 63rd, first, and 36th percentiles.

Pelle Larsson is already a better all-around player—and is still improving

What Larsson's play in Europe is revealing is how committed he appears to be to refining the skill set that already makes him the better all-around player. His handle looks tighter, his finishing is both explosive and controlled, and his shooting looks more rhythmic than it was a season ago.

If Larsson can even reside around 35 percent from beyond the arc in 2026-27, then there won't be much reason to prioritize the veterans.

For one, the Heat lack volume scorers along the wings and already have two efficient shooters in Mitchell and Wiggins in the starting five. Additionally, though Larsson's jump shot leaves something to be desired, he ranked in the 75th percentile in off-ball movements points per 75 possessions, per Basketball Index.

Shooting will ultimately play a part in this discussion, but Larsson is a better defender, slasher, and playmaker than his competition for the last starting role. His play in Europe suggests his jumper could be improving, as well.

Hardaway and Thompson have name value and jump shooting in their favor, but Larsson continues to showcase the all-around value Miami will struggle to overlook when naming a starter.

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