2 Reasons Jimmy Butler should shoot more 3s for the Heat in 2024-25
By Brennan Sims
Jimmy Butler is in for a long season. Every day, there's a new rumor of a team interested in him because he and the Heat didn't re-up on a contract extension this offseason. Butler may enter 2025 free agency as the league's hottest commodity.
He wants to earn as much money as possible. If that's the case, shoot more 3s 22.
Butler shot the ball efficiently from deep last year on low volume. Some would consider this an outlier, but glass-half-full says this is progression. Butler can also optimize his value as he ages, proving his newfound shooting is here to stay.
The jumper looked good last season
Jimmy Butler could get a good look from 3 every trip down if he wanted to. The defense typically gives him this shot as they play the drive.
According to Bball-Index, Butler shot 50% on corner 3s—that's where his volume can rise. Butler typically has plenty of space when he has the ball in the corner. He usually looks to attack the baseline, get into his patented spin move, and draw a foul or score over the defense.
Converting some of those drives into corner 3s would help everyone involved. For one, Butler has been hitting that shot. His 34 made corner 3's were a career high. The Heat's offense would improve if that number reached about 60.
What does Butler sacrifice by upping his 3-point volume? You do not want to take away what makes a player special. Heat fans know firsthand how dominant Butler's baseline drive game can be when he plays at his apex level. He doesn't need to go away from that. Occasionally, he can mix in the always available uncontested corner 3 to keep defenses on their feet.
That unpredictable nature would cause defenses to unclog the paint if Jimmy can hit them at the same rate while upping his volume. He didn't shoot efficiently from the corner in 2023 but shot 36% overall from 3 that year. 36% on 1.6 3PA to 41% on 2.4 3PA is a step in the right direction. His jumper overall has looked good the last two years, so let's up the ante. Shooting more and connecting will aid Butler in his quest for green currency.
A real jump shot makes Butler more valuable.
The disconnect between Butler and the Heat stems from Jimmy being on the path of a Mesozoic man through an NBA lens. Butler is turning 35 next month, and the Heat may not want to commit to paying the aging veteran the salary he's looking for.
If his shooting is real, he will become valuable as he ages. Many great players, from our own Dwyane Wade to 2018 MVP James Harden, have had to change their game as they aged.
Wade was the Wally West of the association at his peak -- nobody could stay in front of him. After his knees robbed him of that zap, he doubled down on his skill and posted up a lot more while taking more midranges. After 2014, Wade never took more than 36% of his shots at the rim (50% in his rookie year).
Harden is known for changing the NBA landscape with isolation ball and his lethal step back. Go to any AAU tournament or open gym runs in America, and the most skilled player in the gym will have that move in their bag. Harden was Mr. 36 PPG in 2018 -- a historic run only Michael Jordan and Wilt Chamberlian can rival. As he aged, he transformed into a full-time point guard. Harden has led the league in assists since exiting his prime and looks more like a pass-first than a score-first player in 2024.
Great players evolve as they age, and Butler should be no exception. If he can shoot the ball more at the same pace, teams would consider him a valuable 3-D wing who can create on his own, muck up a game, and come up clutch in huge moments.
That archetype can receive the money Butler is looking for. Organizations don't want to pigeonhole their franchise, offering a nonshooting, aging scrapper that can't give the team superstar scoring production crazy money. But teams love that OG Anunoby archetype. He's the type of 3-D wing named the best/most valuable role player in basketball.
With a real jumper, Butler is much better than OG (better without it, too, don't get me wrong) and still offers playmaking and close to 20 PPG scoring if he has a reduced role—which he presumably would if he hit the open market and joined a contending team.
The formula is simple for Butler. He must have a sensational year if he wants the dead presidents he deserves. More 3s = more money.