2. Young Heat players take the next step
The Heat need more talent. Ray Charles could've picked up on that. Internal growth from Nikola Jovic or Jaime Jaquez Jr. could surpass the skyrocketing Magic.
Jaquez was among the best rookies last year. After playing a key role in the Heat limping into the playoffs, he was named first-team All-Rookie. Jaquez showed many valuable skills that top-tier role players in the NBA possess.
Jaquez is a bucket at the rim. According to Cleaning the Glass, he shot 65% at the rim, ranking in the 62nd percentile among wings. Jaquez uses his large upper frame to initiate contact and finish through defenders. His poise and balance help him absorb blows and shrug them off. That finishing number is passable for a rookie and will improve as he matures.
Many rookies need to get stronger to play at the next level, but that wasn't Jaquez's issue. If he became a consistent knockdown shooter, that might be the leap he needs to become a serious game-changer.
Jaquez shot an Antarctic 33% on 192 3-point attempts in his rookie season. He showed flashes of being able to hit 3s at a high rate throughout the season.
Over a 24-game stretch from November to January, Jaquez shot 38% on three 3-point attempts. His shot was buttery; every three he took seemed good before leaving his fingertips. It's a small sample but encouraging. It shows his efficient shooting is in there, and if he puts it all together, the Magic should be on the lookout.
Nikola Jovic is the Heat's X-factor. The 6-foot-10 forward has the potential to be a next-level point forward. He's already proven to be a brilliant thinking-ahead passer. Jovic makes veteran reads while slipping pick-and-rolls and always has his head up looking to swing it. Jovic is a shooter who defenses left open this year -- he had a "C" openness rating according to Bball Index.
Look for that grade to fall to an F this year, as teams will gameplan for the skilled Serbian's killer shooting. Teams have not yet had to worry about him finishing at the cup.
Jovic was 35 of 60 (58%) on shots at the rim in 2023-24. That low percentage is not ideal for a player with his height. He lacks the strength needed to convert at the rim at a high level, but Jovic did make some gains from his rookie to sophomore year.
Since joining the Heat, he's gained at least 20 pounds and could benefit from adding a little more. More weight would aid Jovic in putting his shoulder into bigs and finishing through them. He has all the touch and skill to finish around bigs, but the contact part is the next step in his evolution.
A shooting, passing, and finishing Jovic should make Olando weary. That's another Heat piece they must deal with to win the Southeast division again.
The key to the Magic repeating as division champs is their No. 2-ranked defense. They have a pitbull defender in Jalen Suggs. He guards the ball like he'll be $1 million in debt if he gets scored on.
Jonathan Issac comes off the bench and is one of the most versatile defenders. The lanky wing can legitimately guard 1-5 and is a stocks (steals + blocks) king. But if the Heat's generational defender puts together a ceiling-raising defensive season, Miami could very well pass what Orlando does best.