1. Jimmy Butler
Surprise, surprise. Yes, the Heat’s success next season will mostly come down to Butler’s level of engagement. But don’t take my word for it. Take it from Pat Riley:
“Who moves the needle the most on our team is Jimmy,” Riley said during his end-of-season press conference. “He’s an incredible player. What I said at the beginning about change is he’s got to give it some thought himself for this team to be what he wants it to be.”
Riley made it no secret that he was disappointed with Butler’s output last season. Butler played just 60 games and was mentally available for maybe 40. When he didn’t play or didn’t care, that forced others to pull more weight than they are capable of. Guys like Herro, Adebayo and Jaquez were forced to lead the offense rather than be a useful cog.
Butler is Miami’s only true advantage creator. His physicality punishes defenses and puts them into rotation and foul trouble. When he’s not passive and playing like the head of the snake, everyone else’s roles fall into place.
There’s a reason the Heat were 8-1 in games Butler posted a 30% or higher usage rate – a rate typically associated with star players. Instead, Butler posted a season-long usage rate of 24% – more in line with guys like Klay Thompson and Myles Turner.
Simple put: If Butler plays like a star in the regular season, the Heat will win more games, escape the play-in tournament and position themselves for a long playoff run. It comes down to 22 entering a season that will give him a chance to earn his last big contract.