Tyler Herro is such a critical point in his career entering year six, but here are a couple of reasons why he could be a bust yet again this season for the Miami Heat:
1. In big moments, he's not particularly consistent. While he showed great moments throughout the regular season, his playoff performances just didn't meet expectations. Starting with that breakout in the 2020 NBA Finals run, he hasn't been able to continue such an impact. With injuries and a fall-off in shooting efficiency in big playoff moments, questions are raised as to whether he could be relied on consistently to start when the stakes were highest.
2. Defensive Limitations: Herro is still one of the Heat's defensive liabilities. His build and not-so-elite defensive instincts continue to make him an easy target for opposing teams. In the playoffs, when matchups are significant, this defensive weakness often forces Erik Spoelstra to limit Herro's minutes or mask him within a defensive scheme.
3. Crowded Guard Rotation: The Heat's backcourt is filled with a cast of talented players, and while Herro remains one of the key scorers on the roster, he may face challenges for playing time given the presence of Terry Rozier, Duncan Robinson, Josh Richardson and even some of the newer additions like Alec Burks. That could cap Herro's upside or ultimately result in some nights with more inconsistent playing time, which may reduce his opportunities to get into a groove.
4. Injury Concerns: Herro's injury history is a concern and only grows with each passing day. Most specifically, Herro missed most of the 2023 postseason. Last season, he missed most of the middle of the season with a leg injury. As Pat Riley said in June, Herro has been fragile.
5. High Expectations: Herro is expected to perform at an All-Star level, as he is making $29 million this season. The added pressure weighs heavily on him, especially with the Heat having reached the Finals in two of the past five seasons. If he fails to prove right away once again that he can deliver night in and night out as a top option, it will be underwhelming.
While Herro's potential is very apparent, until he does prove he can perform well under pressure, improve his defense, and be healthy, there will consistently be a feeling that he could fall short of lofty expectations.